Thursday, June 26, 2014

Sour Grapes Tea Partier Chris McDaniel Cries Foul That Blacks Voted for Thad Cochran

And people in the GOP wonder why blacks don't vote for them.

�The conservative movement is alive in Mississippi,� McDaniel, who has not conceded the race yet to Cochran, said in a Wednesday night statement. �The Republicans who voted last night made it clear they�re looking for conservative change in Mississippi.�

�But the results also tell another story,� McDaniel continued. �They tell the story of some members of our party who are willing to engage in tactics unbecoming of the party of Ronald Reagan. It�s no wonder so many conservatives don�t feel welcome in the Republican party.�

Are "tactics unbecoming the party" appealing to black people? Or is it appealing to the entire actual electorate? If McDaniel was so into making sure there is ideological purity then why don't they just close the election to GOP party members only? That way it will be a Tea Party vs. Establishment Republican fight off.

It Seems Technology May Have Forced FIFAs hand When It Came to the "Italian Diner" Suarez

I have to agree that FIFA could not sweep the whole having a bite of Italian thing under the rug.

This is also a victory for technology and social media. FIFA often gets these decisions wrong, and the endless loop of replays and photos and Internet discussion of Suarez's behavior surely made the soccer authority's decision unavoidable. Consider: Suarez is one of the most poorly behaved athletes in the world, and he hasn't received a single red card in the last four years. He was not given even a yellow card for his bite, despite the obvious marks on Chiellini's left shoulder. Chiellini himself summed it up best when he said after the incident: "Suarez is a sneak and he gets away with it because FIFA wants their stars to play in the World Cup," he said. 'I'd love to see if they have the courage to use video evidence against him.'

A 9 game ban is a pretty big deal and he cannot even watch his team play because he is banned from all soccer activities. What is interesting too is that this guy might be known more for biting people then he is for any of his play on the field. It seems that World Cup glory and enmity follows a player around for a long time depending on your nation.

Wednesday, June 25, 2014

Interesting Student Loan Bankruptcy Plan Advocated by the Weekly Standard

I'm sure some economist could poke holes in this idea but it might be a good thing for the CBO or someone to give this idea a green-eyeshade once over.

If we are concerned that allowing students to escape student debt via bankruptcy might open up the college loan market to the same moral hazard problems that befell the mortgage market and will leave the government on the hook, we could make the institution of higher learning assume their loan payments after a bankruptcy. That might make schools think twice before they admit a marginal prospect and charge them thousands of dollars for an education that might not do them much good, and it might make students think twice about disdaining lower-price options, such as the junior college near their home.

If the school had to write off the debt and have a large "allowance for doubtful accounts" line item put onto their books it might change the landscape of college. I know there would be know 8% or more per year tuition raises and I have a feeling that many marginal colleges might close their doors. Those small private schools with the $36,000 a year tuition does not look as good if they would be on the hook for those bankrupt students.

Family Wealth has Plunged in the Last 10 Years

I guess this might be a reason why families are freaking out and feel like there is actually a recession on instead of a recovery.

A new study published by the Russell Sage foundation helps explain why many families feel like they�re falling behind: They actually are. The study, which measures the average wealth of U.S. households by income level, reveals a startling decline in wealth nationwide. The median household in 2013 had a net worth of just $56,335 -- 43% lower than the median wealth level right before the recession began in 2007, and 36% lower than a decade ago. �There are very few signs of significant recovery from the losses in wealth suffered by American families during the Great Recession,� the study concludes.

Most of this is due to housing prices being low and real inflation (food and energy) cutting into their purchasing power as their wages stay stagnate. I would be apoplectic if I was down 30% in net worth in just 10 years.

What also sucks for those families is that I bet they were gun-shy of the stock market after 2008 and kept their money in cash and T-bonds. If they had bought stocks like I did they would be up huge right now and actually feeling a little better about things. Instead they have anemic savings rates from "stimulus" and have to dip into the market after missing the huge upward move. I think another train might hit them if they aren't careful.

World Cup Advancement Math for Tomorrows US vs Germany Game

In the words of late Los Angeles Raiders owner Al Davis: "Just Win Baby!" But if we don't here is all the things that can happen tomorrow.

Win and advance. This seems to be Jurgen Klinsmann's main goal and it should be, given the U.S. will need a victory in order to not only secure a spot in the next round, but also avoid the arguably stronger team that will emerge from Group H as the winner. The odds say this will probably be Belgium, while Algeria, Russia or South Korea are all still in the race for the potential second seed.

Meanwhile, a draw will ensure the U.S. advances as the group's runner-up, no matter what Ghana and Portugal end up doing.

However, there is one scenario that should be called "screw America by lots"

If Portugal prevails over Ghana 2-0 and the U.S. loses 3-0 to Germany or Portugal beats Ghana 3-1 and Germany beats the U.S. 4-1, the U.S. and Portugal would be tied in points, goals differential and goals scored. Since both sides played a 2-2 draw against each other, FIFA would draw lots in this instance to determine who advances.

I'm pretty sure the Ronaldo-rules would be in effect and FIFA would magically draw Portugal to get through to the knock-out stage. I mean FIFA would make more money if Ronaldo gets another chance to shine (or fail) on the world stage.

Tuesday, June 24, 2014

World Cup Getting Great Ratings in the US

The US might be finally transitioning to being interested in the World Cup at long last. The US-Portugal game was a ratings hit eclipsing most non-football US sporting events.

The Nielsen company said that Sunday's gripping game was seen by an average of 24.7 million viewers on ESPN and Univision. That matches it with the 24.7 million U.S. viewers who watched the 2010 World Cup final between Spain and the Netherlands.

ESPN said an additional 490,000 people streamed coverage of the game on their mobile devices through the company's app. Streaming numbers for 2010 weren't immediately available, but it's very unlikely they were that high because streaming apps were not as sophisticated then.

That streaming number will probably shoot through the roof because the next game will be played during the day on Thursday. Too bad we can't get a soccer holiday like Brazil does whenever their national team plays.

Wednesday, June 18, 2014

Is the world of "Disruption" a good thing?

This article gave me food for thought on the subject of disruption and how it is supposed to be changing the world.

Ever since �The Innovator�s Dilemma,� everyone is either disrupting or being disrupted. There are disruption consultants, disruption conferences, and disruption seminars. This fall, the University of Southern California is opening a new program: �The degree is in disruption,� the university announced. �Disrupt or be disrupted,� the venture capitalist Josh Linkner warns in a new book, �The Road to Reinvention,� in which he argues that �fickle consumer trends, friction-free markets, and political unrest,� along with �dizzying speed, exponential complexity, and mind-numbing technology advances,� mean that the time has come to panic as you�ve never panicked before. Larry Downes and Paul Nunes, who blog for Forbes, insist that we have entered a new and even scarier stage: �big bang disruption.� �This isn�t disruptive innovation,� they warn. �It�s devastating innovation.�

The problem with "disruption" is that it not always creates a better world in its wake. This article goes into it in great detail and I have to agree with Jill Lepore's assessment. She takes apart the Innovators Dilemma point by point and proves that disruption doesn't kill all companies. She also states that disrupting may not be good for some companies.

She does skirt the fact that Blockbuster was killed by Netflix because they didn't catch the digital download wave fast enough. Also Best Buy is slowly being killed off by Amazon because they cannot match their prices and selection because they have to maintain stores. The record store was killed off by iTunes and being able to buy a song at a $1 each. Finally, the book store is slowly being killed by Kindle and the e-book in whatever form. It just seems like the scrappy startup "disrupting" the world is only true for a time until the big boys step in.

However, does this "disruption" make for a better world? I mean you no longer have to drive to the video store to pick out a video to watch on a Friday night. You just have to thumb through page after page of Netflix selections and end up watching reruns of Frazier or something. The bad thing is the tactile sense of things is disappearing. You no longer have a sense of the weight of things. You don't have a DVD or VHS tape in your hands and stored away. You have bytes on the cloud and it creates an ephemeral and disposable thing in your mind. You now have a 1000 movies that you can watch at any time but probably won't come close to watching them. One lucky thing though is Netflix is creating content that is very good. People are enjoying their TV shows and they are critically acclaimed.

This sense of "disruption" especially hard to take when it comes to the book store. I used to spend a solid afternoon reading about all sorts of different topics and thumbing through magazines and books. Now I can just go to Kindle and have 1000s of books at my fingertips but end up not buying any of them. I can't hold them in my hands and thumb through them then I usually don't want to have to buy them. It is especially tough when you know you are paying like $25 for a file that costs Amazon like 1/10th of a penny to make. That whole book store experience is slowly dying for the sake of carrying around a 100 books on your "disruptive" device. It is the cry of the grognard but what can you do?

This is mostly nostalgia talking but some aspects of the "disruptive" world rubs me the wrong way. The idea of dizzying speed and constant "devastating innovation" seems to be making the world a course place. Everyone seems to be rushing around and chasing the newest tech toy or just fleeing obsolescence. People just seem to be more angry and hostile because of it. We have more information at our fingertips than ever before but we also seem more anxious as well.

Part of the reason why the middle class is hurting is because their jobs got "disrupted" away. A solid middle class job like travel agent got taken over by Kayak.com and bank teller got taken over by your Citibank app. Now Uber is coming for the taxi cab driver and Wealthfront goes after your financial adviser. You can talk all you want about the manufacturing sector moving to China and the call center moving to India but Kayak, Amazon, and Android apps are doing their fair share of damage to the middle class. They are "disrupting" some middle class people right out of a job.

Finally there is less control over things and every device seems to be talking to one another while the NSA sits in the dark stealing your data and doing whatever with it. Soon your refrigerator is going to be sending you a Facebook message that you need to throw away your expired Yogurt. Losing your phone is now a terrible thing but soon it is going to be catastrophic. Hell, terrorist groups are Instagraming their mass murders and killers writing YouTube manifestos for everyone to watch. The "disruptive" world brings with it quite a nasty side sometimes. I guess it is the price to pay to have all the worlds knowledge at a click on a device you can fit in your pocket.

Obama Faces a Terrible Choice on Iraq: Yeah it is a Shit Sandwich and He Has to Take a Bite

I would not envy this new foreign policy conundrum the White House is facing. Every choice sucks as far as I can tell.

1. Team up with Iran to fight the insurgents with air power. Its the Great Satan and and Axis of Evil member in a tag-team match for the soul of Iraq. This is pretty much the US flying drone strikes for the Badr Brigade and the Iranian Republican Guard. That cannot look good if you are against Iranian nuclear ambitions and pro-sanctions. Also these are the same guys that were trying to kill our troops just a few years ago.

2. Do nothing. We get a ring side seat for genocide and a civil war that impacts a nation that is a huge oil producer that we recently fought a war to "liberate." In fact it is an honest-to-goodness regional conflict because ISIS is taking the looted tanks and weapons from the Iraqi army to go fight in Syria. The Syrian war just escalated. That seems to happen when you don't do anything except write red lines and pass out MREs in a conflict. If you don't lead you end up having to have conditions dictated to you.

3. Boots on the Ground. We get sucked into a regional civil war between the Sunni and the Shiites that have been going on since Mohammed died. We shouldn't have left in the first place but this is the kind of thing that happens when we do. We have to come back into the picture but the battlefield is already tilted against us. In fact not signing a status-of-forces agreement might get the Iraqi government killed if ISIS invades Baghdad.

All of these things are terrible choices. Maybe some Great Game playing with us aligning with and arming the Kurds might be in order. It will piss off Turkey but you have to pick the side that would be the most beneficial to your nation in the long run. You might have to partition the country though in order for this to succeed and I'm sure the UN would not want that to happen.

Obama's Foreign Policy Flubs Taking Their Toll

It seems that Obama nearly endless screw-ups on the foreign stage is hurting his poll numbers.

According to the poll, just 37% of respondents said they approved of Obama's handling of foreign-policy issues, an all-time low. Meanwhile, 57% said they disapproved, an all-time high.

And the foreign-policy approval rating for Obama might be artificially high. The poll was conducted before the crisis in Iraq � a situation for which Obama has been roundly criticized � bubbled up and grabbed international attention.

The Iraq crisis will get even worse for Obama (and the Iraqis) as we go along. Also it seems that the public is not behind trading 5 Taliban generals for 1 possible defector by a large margin.

According to the poll, 44% of respondents said the administration should not have made the exchange, compared with 30% who supported it.

Tuesday, June 17, 2014

Wait, Kanye West Worked for 4 Days on This Wedding Photo? The Flowers Look Like Foam Sealant

I have no idea why they worked on this photo for 4 days during his Honeymoon. The flowers look like that foam sealant you use on a car or a boat.


Wednesday, June 11, 2014

More Obama Incompentence: They Put the CIA chief in Kabul's name on a Handout to Reporters?

I think the entire White House is asleep at the switch. This is inexcusable.

The White House said on Wednesday it has put corrective measures in place in response to the accidental public outing of the CIA station chief's name during President Barack Obama's trip to Afghanistan late last month.

During the trip, personnel at Bagram Air Base gave to White House communications personnel at list of people who were meeting Obama. The White House gave the list to reporters covering the trip and among the names was that of the CIA official.

"Here is a top secret list of people that Obama will be meeting at Bagram" says an Air Force official with a TS clearance. "Thanks" says incompetent White House communications peon while he hands it to a bunch of reporters in attendance. 

I'm sure one of the reporters then says "I didn't know that Bob is the Station Chief in Kabul I thought he was a independent contractor for Boeing." Bob the Station Chief in Kabul's gets to spend the rest of his career in Washington thinking of ways to kill off that incompetent White House peon.

Obama in the Bubble: Why the Bergdahl Swap Went Sour so Quickly

This makes sense why the White House fumbled the Bergdahl prisoner swap so badly.

And this is precisely the problem. President Obama felt �very strongly� that he had made the right decision � and nobody who worked for him was about to tell him otherwise. �There was not a dissent on moving forward with this plan,� Ben Rhodes, a deputy national security adviser, told Time magazine. 

In other words the Obama White House and the "Sun King" Louis XIV court are starting to resemble one another. A team of yes-men that can't tell the monarch any bad news at all. This article goes on to suppose that congress wasn't called about the prisoner deal because they might tell Obama some bad news. I can see someone like Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Mich.), the intelligence committee chairman saying "Bergdahl might be a defector so it would be stupid to trade 5 Taliban Generals for him."

The White House then does a Rose Garden victory lap and then has to make a tortured explanation why the Bergdahls where there in the first place. I'm sure someone could have said "wait on the victory lap" until we can at least call Dianne Feinstein or can talk to Bergdahl to see if he is a defector or merely a deserter.

Finally, having Susan Rice go on the morning shows (which was such a good idea during the Bengazi debacle) and say Bergdahl served with honor and distinction was a total unforced error. This seemed to bring out the soldiers who Bergdahl abandoned to tell the real story on what happened. If the White House kept their mouth shut maybe the story of why Bergdahl fell into the Taliban's hands would have remained a mystery. In any case "Sun King" Obama might want to leave the Court every now and then and hear some unvarnished truth if he can take it.


Tea Party Darling, Dave Brat, who Beat Cantor Did it Through Attacking Big Business

Well it seems that immigration reform wasn't Cantors only Achilles heel. He was also attacked because he was pro-business.

"The central theme of Brat�s campaign is that Cantor is beholden to business � specifically the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the Business Roundtable," wrote Politico in April.

�If you�re in big business, Eric�s been very good to you, and he gets a lot of donations because of that, right?� Brat said at a local meeting of Republicans in Virginia, according to Politico. �Very powerful. Very good at fundraising because he favors big business. But when you�re favoring artificially big business, someone�s paying the tab for that. Someone�s paying the price for that, and guess who that is? You.�

Said like a guy who is a professor at Randolph Macon College that doesn't have to worry about the bottom line like people in the private sector. He seems like a Tea Party version of the pointy-headed liberal college professor who has a lot of ideas passed down from the Ivory Tower.  He actually sounds like the conservative version of Obama who hasn't worked at an actual business anytime in his life.

Also what in the hell is an "artificially big business?" Is that a successful business? Is it merely a successful business that doesn't have to rely on $35,360 a year in tuition (and the pile of debt that is created) to survive? Is that a company that employs 10,000s of Americans and makes it so they can support their families and maybe get into the upper middle class without begging for tenure from some high-priced university?

Anti-business Tea Partiers make me sick because they treat large corporations how liberals do. They think these companies are monolithic entities and not hundreds of thousands of people all striving to make capitalism work (and are hopefully being paid a nice sum doing it.) An "artificially big business" will create more growth and more jobs than a 100 pointy-headed college professors combined. In any case Dave Brat will probably get smashed by whatever Dem they put up against him anyway so it is all a moot point.

Mark My Words: Eric Cantor's Loss Means the Dems Hold the Senate and Hands Hillary the White House

Well it seems that the Tea Party know-nothings have sniped a big target.

�My understanding from talking to people down in Richmond was that the real issues seem to be that he wasn�t strongly enough anti-immigration reform, that he voted to end the government shutdown and he voted to raise the debt ceiling,� Bobbie Kilberg, who heads the Northern Virginia Technology Council and held a May fundraiser for Cantor, told TIME. �And you know, at some point in time, these people need to understand you just simply have to govern. These people need to understand that we need immigration reform. And these people need to understand that Eric Cantor was a conservative on all those issues. He was a mainstream conservative.�

Yup, and save the world economy as well when he voted to raise the debt ceiling. In any case immigration reform is probably dead for maybe a decade since no Republican is going to back it and have an opportunity to lose their primary. By then the Hispanic vote will be firmly in the Democratic pocket so there may never be another Republican President in decades for sure. The Tea Party fighting "amnesty" has probably won it for Hillary Clinton and maybe even Chelsea Clinton if she wants to run in 2024.

Also we might have a bunch of Tea Party asswipes beating establishment candidates and then losing to Democrats in their general elections. So the establishment guys can either do nothing (which is usually a good bet) or tack right to try to win the Tea Party vote. Tacking right will make them unpalatable to independents and they will lose in the general. So the Senate will probably stay in Democratic hands in November.

In any case more idiot Tea Partiers will be shutting down the government or defaulting on our debt and making it hard for this economy to grow. Hopefully, Cantor lost because he was more interested in Washington power and less interested in Virginia's 7th district. However if this is a sign that the Tea Party is turning the tide against mainstream Republicans then the Dems can be in power for a very long time.