Friday, May 18, 2012

Yet Another Case of Individual Investors Taking the Hype of the Facebook IPO

I'm glad some of these people have financial planners to keep themselves from freaking out.

On Monday, 74-year-old Betty Tanguilig told her financial adviser to liquidate a $400,000 account and put all the proceeds into Facebook Inc IPO shares.


Her adviser, Alan Haft, agreed to sell only $46,000 of the $400,000 account, one of several the retiree has. But at about 6:00 a.m. EDT Friday, Haft heard from his brokerage firm, E*Trade Financial Corp, that Tanguilig did not get any IPO shares.


Tanguilig, a retired mother of eight, was furious. She has been on Facebook for many years and regularly logs in. "I had to have it," she said.

So this poor woman wanted to liquidate her entire account and buy shares of Facebook? Now that is a bigger epic fail than its IPO debut.

Facebook Debut an Epic Fail; Underwriters had to Rush to Keep it Above IPO Price

Now this is embarrassing for a "historic IPO" and the greatest of all time and other hyperbole that was used by CNBC to hype Facebook.

But the shares lost steam in the final hour of trading, and fell back to the $38 level�a tepid performance for one of the largest and most closely watched IPOs. More than 30 banks were involved in the offering, which sold at least 421 million shares to investors.

There was supposed to be a rush to keep the stock above the IPO price of $38 which would have been a serious embarrassment for the underwriters and Facebook as well. Also I hope this guy was able to get in at $38 and not $45 because he swallowed that CNBC hype uncooked:

"If it wasn't for Facebook I wouldn't be here," he said as he left the branch to go to his bank and transfer money into his new account. "I missed out on Groupon when it went public, so I'm not going to miss the boat this time."

Mr. Hodges said he plans to invest $10,000 in Facebook shares�including $4,500 of his own money and $5,500 from his mother.


Mr. Hodges expressed confidence in Mark Zuckerberg as Facebook's CEO and said he isn't worried about Mr. Zuckerberg being young. "To me, he's a genius. You know, he created something for the whole world... Everything is social now. The world is a different place with Facebook," he said.

Um, Mr. Hodges has no business investing his or his mom's money because he just isn't very good at it. If he bought Groupon at the IPO price of $20 he would be down $8.42 a share on paper. In other words he would have lost nearly half of his initial investment. Or maybe to put it in a positive light he "missed the boat" on losing $8.42 a share which is a pretty good deal I think. In any case he is not the kind of retail investor that WSJ should be interviewing.

I'm not saying that Facebook will drop too far below $38 since I think the underwriters will prop it up as much as they can to not look like fools to have priced the stock too high. Facebook just isn't worth half of Google's market cap but trades at 45 times earnings while Google trades at only 12 times earnings. Google is growing their earnings at a 60% clip.

Facebook is basically trading on the hope that Zuckerberg can keep Facebook growing its earnings +50% a year for quite a while. I mean the stock is worth 1/5th of Apple and doesn't come close to growing their revenue at anywhere near the 94% that Apple currently is. I think Facebook should have priced a smaller allotment than 18% of float at $30 and they would have had lots of room to grow higher. Right now they are priced for even more than perfection. I just don't see how they can do it by only selling banner ads.

Tuesday, May 15, 2012

More Looming Problems: Congress About to Jump Off The "Fiscal Cliff?"

In my opinion they have already jumped off of it but if they don't do anything by Jan 1st 2013 then it might get pretty bad.

Economists agree that tax hikes and spending cuts will drag down economic growth in 2013 yet the estimates vary. Moody's Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi predicts the fiscal drag next year could be to closer to 1.5 of a percentage point of GDP. The Congressional Budget Office calculated GDP could drop by nearly 3.6 percentage points in the 2013 fiscal year while Morgan Stanley economist David Greenlaw says fiscal tightening could translate into a 5 percent drag on GDP during the 2013 calendar year.

So with our anemic 2% GDP growth a -5% smack in the face will put us right into a recession for 2013. The bad part is that Congress is such a joke that they probably won't get anything done until right after the election. If the GOP wins they might be able to throw something together to at least push the deadline forward until the 1st quarter of 2013.

However, the markets get to be in uncertainty mode until they finally get something done. The idea that a bunch of Americans need to figure out if they will be paying 15% or 35% capital gains taxes come Jan 1st will be sure to rile the markets at the end of the year.

Obama's Gay Marriage Stance Viewed as Politcal Move according to Recent Poll

I think they did not read the poll numbers on this whole gay marriage thing that Biden had him step into.

Most of those polled say the president's position will not impact how they vote. But among those who say it will influence their choice, 26 percent said they are less likely to vote for Obama as a result, while 16 percent say they are more likely to.

And in what is expected to be a tight race, "even a small shift in swing states could be costly," says the Times.

I would be willing to bet many of those lost votes will be in areas with minorities who are religious that would normally vote for him and did so in the past. If they don't vote for him or just don't turn up like they did in 2008 then states like North Carolina, Colorado, and maybe Nevada would jump to Romney. This part of the poll jumped out at me as well.

Sixty-seven percent said they thought Obama's announcement was made "mostly for political reasons," while 24 percent said it was "mostly because he thinks it is right."

In another potentially damaging sign, 70 percent of Independents attribute the president's move to politics, along with nearly half of Democrats.

That is quite a wide margin who thinks that the only reason he made the announcement in the first place was for political reasons instead of an actual stand on an issue. Basically he flip-flopped so that he can get some of that sweet Hollywood cashola. Obama seemed like he was anti-gay marriage right up until George Clooney waved his checkbook at him. Suddenly he was all for it. That shows that Obama needs about $15 million in donations in order to change his mind on something. Maybe Israel needs to throw him a fundraiser in the near future and they can take care of this whole Iranian nuke thing.

Monday, May 14, 2012

Greece Owes 436 Million Euros Due Tomorrow?

This Greek mess is getting stranger and stranger as we speak.

Greece has a 436 million euro principal repayment due Tuesday. So far, the country has not decided what to do.

Under normal Greek-debt contracts, if Greece doesn�t pay, it would have only a seven-day grace period. But experts who have pored over all of this have found that one of the key paragraphs from the normally boiler-point language is missing. 

As a result, Greece will have a 30-day grace period, leading to the possibility of an extended, �Will they?� or �won�t they?� drama.

What sort of an organization are they running when they leave out a paragraph on how long a grace period will be when there is 436 million Euros due to your indebted asses? So is it the total amount due in 7 days or 30 days? Or will the commie government just say to hell with the payment and Greece goes into technical default? I assume they will be good for the money but 436 million Euros due tomorrow sounds pretty scary.

This whole thing reminds me of the scene from Trading Places where the Commodity Exchange guys go to the Dukes and say "Margin Call Gentlemen." Then Greece says in a high pitched voice. "We can't come up with 436 million Euros by the close of business tomorrow!" This whole thing is such a joke.

Friday, May 11, 2012

Mayan Apocalypse Put Off for Billions of Years

It seems that way from a recently unearthed Mayan calendar.

The hieroglyphs, painted in black and red, along with a colorful mural of a king and his mysterious attendants, seem to have been a sort of handy reference chart for court scribes in A.D. 800 � the astronomers and mathematicians of their day. Contrary to popular myth, this calendar isn't a countdown to the end of the world in December 2012, the study researchers said.

"The Mayan calendar is going to keep going for billions, trillions, octillions of years into the future," said archaeologist David Stuart of the University of Texas, who worked to decipher the glyphs. "Numbers we can't even wrap our heads around."

The attendants mentioned were called Older Brother Obsidian and Younger Brother Obsidian. I wonder if they were some kind of servants to the king or from the scribe class. In any case they sound like awesome both characters in a D&D game.

Thursday, May 10, 2012

Hit Piece Goes After Romney in Prep School 50 years ago

Now this is a new low for the mainstream media I think.

Mitt Romney has apologized for incidents described in a Washington Post story about his prep school years in Michigan. Some of the events include forcibly cutting a boy's bleached-blond hair and hassling a closeted gay student in English class.

"Back in high school, I did some dumb things," Romney said in an interview on the "Kilmeade and Friends" talk show on Fox News radio Thursday. "And if anybody was hurt by that or offended by that, I apologize." He added: "There is no question I became a very different person since then."

These are things that happened 50 years ago. I mean just about everyone has done some stupid stuff in high school and it should not come under scrutiny if they run for President half a decade later. I mean Obama is supposed to have smoked pot and snorted coke and was a small time drug dealer at Punahou. I didn't think that was relevant to the man now because it can all be chalked up to youthful indiscretion. 

If Romney was still forcefully cutting off some blond guys long hair or Obama was dealing out of the Oval Office it would be relevant but this scrutiny is just absurd.

Friday, April 27, 2012

ETFs are like the Internet while Mutual Funds are the Newspaper Says WisdomTree CEO

I tend to agree with his statement.

"The ETF is to the mutual fund, what the internet is to the newspaper," Steinberg says in the attached video, shot after a panel discussion on the issue hosted by the New York Stock Exchange. "Because of the added functionality, full transparency, greater liquidity, greater tax efficiency, those characteristics are so important for investing. That's why I think it's a better mouse trap."

They are much easier to deal with than Mutual Funds for the most part and you don't have to worry about having a $2500 minimum in order to buy one. You can also put a nice stop loss on them just in case you want to get out of the position in a down market. With a mutual fund you have to put in a sell order and wait for the next day before it is filled. You might miss an opportunity in the meantime. You also don't have to worry about a weird capital gain or a tax bill showing up at the end of the year.

Amazingly, in the vastly growing universe of some 1,500 different exchange traded products, there are currently 47 actively managed ETFs to choose from, meaning the remaining 97% of products fall into the passive, unmanaged or specialty categories. Of those 47 actively managed funds, Steinberg's firm currently runs 14 of them, giving them a quick lead in a market segment that he says is set for "literally trillions and trillions and trillions of future growth."

The only problem I have with managed ETFs is that some of them are hardly traded and I just don't like buying a security that has a daily volume of 200-600 shares or something. It just makes me feel like I would be getting a poor price when I get into a product like that.

Thursday, April 26, 2012

Playoffs? Playoffs? College Football Finally Removes Their Heads from Their Asses

I think the lure of huge money has finally outweighed all the stupidity that went on with the BCS in the past few years.

As for the 14-year-old Bowl Championship Series, it's on life support. Any chance that it survives past the next two seasons? "I hope not," said Southeastern Conference Commissioner Mike Slive, who pitched a four-team playoff four years ago but was shot down at this same hotel beachside hotel.

"This is a seismic change for college football," BCS Executive Director Bill Hancock said after the 11 conference commissioners and Notre Dame's athletic director wrapped up three days of meetings in south Florida.

I think the SEC leaning on this whole process is what made it happen. Even though there were two SEC teams going for the title this past year this Slive guy had some heavy firepower at his disposal. I think the sheer stupidity all the teams from the West Coast trying to get into the "Big East" may have turned the tide as well. 

Among those debates: Slive prefers the four top-ranked teams regardless of conferences in the playoffs. Scott likes the idea of taking the top four conference champions as a way of moving away from the subjectivity of polls that dominant the current BCS standings.

Slive's idea above would be awesome because it could give some teams from the non-power conferences a chance at the National Title. In other words if Hawaii is undefeated they can theoretically challenge for the National Title. More than likely they would be ranked number 5 but the chance is still there. But Boise would have had a shot at the National Title for several years already.

On the other hand this Scott character is obviously an idiot because it will be the Champions of the Power Conferences year after year playing in the playoffs no matter what. Who would conceive of the Mountain West Champion being given the edge over the ACC Champion or the Pac12 Champion in any given year. 

Also this system will be ripe for a screw-up where an undefeated team can't go to the playoffs even though they win their Championship while a one or more loss team wins their Championship and gets to the playoffs instead. Also if for whatever reason the SEC is left out of the playoffs expect a second succession from the Union.

What would be interesting is to see if the Playoff worthy Conference is selected because of non-conference wins against ranked opponents. So that Clemson vs. South Carolina or a Florida State vs. Florida matchup early in the season might be for a chance for their Conference to get a Playoff berth. Also you wouldn't have Texas ducking Hawaii because that win would count for a Big 12 Playoff Berth.

Wednesday, April 25, 2012

Awesome Gallery of 870,000 New York Photos Published Online

This seems to be an awesome historical record that I can't wait to delve into.

Almost a million images of New York and its municipal operations have been made public for the first time on the internet.
The city's Department of Records officially announced the debut of the photo database.
Culled from the Municipal Archives collection of more than 2.2 million images going back to the mid-1800s, the 870,000 photographs feature all manner of city oversight -- from stately ports and bridges to grisly gangland killings.

I know a photo can show you more history than just about anything and can seriously spark your imagination. I hope more catalogues of photos show up online for amateur historians to pour over.

The Royals Have Been Mathematically Eliminated

Well, I guess that is what this fan thinks of their 3-14 start.

Thursday, April 19, 2012

Mark Your Calendar April 20, 1912 is Throwback Uniform Day at Yankee Stadium

The Red Sox cap actually looks kind of cool.

The Red Sox version, which we've seen before, is all white and decidedly no-frills. Boston always looks like a collection of house painters, ice cream men or � in the case of Dustin Pedroia � the young flat-brimmed punk loitering outside the Cinnabon at your local mall when they wear these.

The Yankees version is a little more familiar to the modern day baseball fan, though the relatively unfamiliar color combination reminds me of something the young flat-brimmed punk at your local mall would wear while standing in line at Sbarro.

The Yankee's cap does look a little like something you could buy at Lidz. However, I kind of wish they had the really small brims like they had in 1912. 

Tuesday, April 17, 2012

3D Printer Used to Make Drugs in a Lab: Um, I wouldn't take HPs Aspirin for Any Reason

Now this is really quite a breakthrough that should make drugs cheaper and easier to get out there to the masses.

Professor Lee Cronin and his team introduced the tech in a research paper, published in Nature Chemistry. The researchers modified a currently available 3D printer they purchased for $2,000, adding vessels with chemicals in them. In doing so, they created what they call "reactionware," a far cheaper, smaller scale version of incredibly expensive chemical engineering equipment.

The innovation could expand access to expensive cancer drugs, allowing pharmacies to fill prescriptions for patients on demand or even allowing patients to print their own medicine from home. According to Cronin, "we could use 3D printers to revolutionize access to health care in the developing world, allowing diagnosis and treatment to happen in a much more efficient and economical way than is possible now."

However, I would not trust any 3D printer from HP that would make my drugs. I mean first of all their software is always messy bloatware but now the quality of their printers are pretty suspect. All it takes is one driver error or fuser malfunction and you are taking arsenic instead of aspirin. I would certainly not take any drug that I would need to print from an HP home printer knowing how they are basically made to sell toner and not to last for any length of time. 

Thursday, April 12, 2012

White House goes after Stay-at-Home Moms saying they "Haven't Worked a Day in Their Lives."

This is a pretty mean thing to say about Ms. Romney and her staying home and raising her 5 sons.

The first small-print one � "Adviser to Obama, DNC Attacks Ann Romney" � goes to this video clip of DNC advisor Hilary Rosen, trying to say that Mitt Romney "doesn't connect" on the issue of women struggling economically: He's "running around the country, saying, well, my wife tells me that what women really care about are economic issues, and when I listen to my wife, that's what I'm hearing." She pauses, then blurts out the unfortunate line, which she clearly thinks is a great zinger: "Guess what? His wife has actually not worked a day in her life." She ends with "He seems so old fashioned." 

So raising 5 boys is "not working a day in her life?" I thought women were allowed to stay home and take care of their kids if they chose to. It seems that this Rosen character figures that they aren't "really working" so why pay them any mind. I wonder why the White House hates stay-at-home mothers so much?

Tuesday, April 10, 2012

Whoops Spoke Too Soon: Santorum is Done; Drops out of Race

Well our access to porn is safe for the time being. The Church Lady has dropped out.

After calling Mitt Romney to concede the race for the Republican nomination, Rick Santorum suspended his campaign Tuesday during a press conference in Pennsylvania, his home state.

"We will suspend our campaign effective today," Santorum said surrounded by members of his family in Gettysburg.

Now all is left is for Newt to drop out and all the money and attention should be placed back on Romney. I think Mitt is not the best candidate we could have but the GOP now has the opportunity to close ranks and make Obama a one-termer. I'm hoping a Ryan or a Cantor as VP will get me excited about voting for Mitt.