70% Haircut on Greek Debt?

If I were sitting on CDOs on Greek Debt I would just let them default instead of taking 30 cents on the dollar like this.

The person said Monday that the 70 percent loss was produced by cutting the bonds' face value in half, reducing the average interest rate to less than 4 percent and pushing repayment of the bonds decades into the future. 

Also I would be loathe to loan any of the debt-soaked southern European countries one single dollar more if this kind of thing could happen again. I hope whatever compact the Germans impose on the rest of Europe puts in place an automatic expulsion of a nation that gets over a certain debt level. That might have headed off this crisis at the very beginning and let the Greeks inflate their way out of this problem by bringing back the Drachma.

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Market Headed for a "Golden Cross?"

At least it seems that way if we keep going higher.

The �cross� happens when the 50-day moving average rises above the 200-day moving average, signaling a continuing uptrend. 

�As of right now, the 200-day is at 1,257, and the 50-day is at 1,256, so it�s one S&P point away from happening. I think it will come, if you look at what the 50-day looks like,� said Birinyi Associates analyst Kevin Pleines.  

He said his analysis shows that when the 50-day crossed the 200-day in the 26 instances since 1962, the market was higher six months later 81 percent of the time. 

Wow 81% is a pretty good indicator. I am already net long the market and pared down my cash so this bodes well for me if the 50 day holds above the 200 day.

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Amish Project: Interesting But Sad in a Way

This writer cut the digital cord for 90 days and he seems better for the experience.

Were there people who said, "I'm just not going to participate in this. If you can't answer my texts, I don't need to talk to you."

 

Reilly: Yeah, I mean, I definitely just lost complete contact with people that normally would have been part of my life. I mean it's also an interesting metric for your life to see who some of your closest friends are, you know, and who's willing to take the time. I started to feel bad for them, too, because it definitely became a nuisance, but, yeah, it definitely changed the level of, or the number of friends that I had and the level of contact that I had with them. 

I guess he saw who is "friends" were ie Facebook friends and who his real friends were. I mean the idea that people lost complete contact with him because he cut the digital cord says a lot about them. I wonder if these superficial "digital friends" are going to be the norm for 20-somethings going forward?

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Stange Objects Found at the Bottom of the Baltic Sea

Now this is something that needs to be checked out as soon as possible.

Sonar readings show that the mysterious object is about 60 meters across, or, about the size of a jumbo jet. And it's not alone. Nearby on the sea floor is another, smaller object with a similar shape. Even more fascinating, both objects have "drag marks" behind them on the sea floor, stretching back more than 400 feet.

I wonder what they could be? They might be Soviet submarines that had an accident that was not disclosed to the public at large. However a Kursk class sub is only 18 meters across. It might be a Russian Dreadnaught from WWI but even those ships are only about half as wide as these objects at 26.8 meters. About the only thing that is 72 meters across is a Soviet era Carrier. You would figure that the Russians couldn't keep the sinking of a ship that size a secret even during the Cold War.

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It Seems that Buffett Paying a Lower Tax Rate Than His Secretary is Rare

Well it seems that the uber-rich not paying their fair share seems to be a pretty miniscule number of people clocking in at just 236,883 taxpayers who earned more than $1 million in 2009.

The Top 400 tax filers  � the very richest Americans � do pay a lower rate of just 18.11 percent of their total income.  Why?  Many of them are hedge fund managers and people like Buffet � their income is pegged how much their investment fund grows.  For some reason, this income is counted as so-called �carried interest� (even though it is not interest at all; it�s more like a performance bonus) and is taxed at the lower 15 percent capital gains rate.

So if they got rid of the "carried interest" rule then that should solve much of the income inequality that Obama keeps harping on.  Also it seems that middle income Americans are not really paying their fair share at all according to this:

The numbers change a bit if you look at total income before deductions and tax credits (Adjusted Gross Income), according to another non-partisan group, The Tax Foundation. Here�s how the numbers breakdown using IRS data from 2009 on Adjusted Gross Income for the income groups at issue in this discussion:

-           $10 million a year paid 22 percent.

-          $1 million  to $10 million paid 25 percent.

-          $50,000 to $75,000 paid 7 percent.

The middle class pay just 7 percent because of deductions and tax credits that H&R Block get paid big money to uncover. If you go to those making less than $50,000 many of them pay no taxes at all and receive refunds instead. In any case the entire tax code should be overhauled.

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Apple Obliterates Numbers from Orbit!

Who knew selling IPhones and IPads would be so damn lucrative.

The technology giant [AAPL  420.41    -6.999  (-1.64%)   ] delivered fiscal first-quarter earnings excluding items of $13.87 a share, double the $6.43 a share recorded in the year-earlier period.

Revenue jumped 73 percent to $46.3 billion from $26.74 billion a year ago.

Analysts had expected the company to report earnings excluding items of $10.10 per share on revenue of $38.9 billion, according to a consensus estimate from Thomson Reuters.

They had records all around as well:

The company said it sold 37 million iPhones, 15.4 million iPads and 5.2 million Macs during the quarter � all new records and all beating analysts' expectations.

They also hold $97.6 billion in cash just pretty much sitting in some bank somewhere. I think they should use that money to buy 5 Nimitz Class Aircraft Carriers (ICarriers?) and 75 F-18 Hornets (IFighters?) and go around solving the worlds problems one sortie at a time. Or maybe they should give shareholders a one time cash dividend or something. Just having it sit around in a large pile is a big waste of resources.

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It Seems a Greek Default Wouldn't be so Bad

I guess since it doesn't come as a surprise and markets are ready for it then it can be dealt with.

The International Swaps and Derivatives Association says the total net exposure of market participants who have sold CDS credit protection on Greek sovereign debt was about $3.7 billion as of Oct. 21, 2011. At this point, the group estimates that more than 90 percent of Greek CDSs have been collateralized. In other words, most of the insurance has already been paid. 

Also there seems to be $53 billion in Greek Debt maturing in 2012 which will probably get wiped out. Anything else coming due in the future should be okay since Greece will run a surplus with the new austerity bill in place. Then the EU can move to boot them out of the Union and put some serious debt to GDP ratio laws in place going forward. Maybe if it gets too high they will put them on membership watch.

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Romney Releases Tax Returns: Pays $6 million in 2 years

Now that is one hefty tax bill.

Bowing to increasing political pressure to provide more detail about his vast wealth, the former private equity executive released tax returns indicating he and his wife, Ann, paid an effective tax rate of 13.9 percent in 2010. They expect to pay a 15.4 percent rate when they file their returns for 2011. 
   
Romney's tax rate is below that of most wage-earning Americans because most of his income, as outlined in more than 500 pages of tax documents, flows from capital gains on investments. 

His tax return was 500 pages? I get mad when I have to file a bunch of K1s for owning ETFs. The idea of having to file a 500 page report to the government is asinine. I think the tax code should be simplified so that someone making $45 million and someone making $45,000 should file the same amount of worthless forms.

Also the idea that he pays only 15% while other Americans pay 35% is stupid. Most Americans pay 0% and actually get money back from the government to the tune of $1000s. I mean all those H&R Block commercials show people getting back like $10,000 or more.

I think every American should pay some income taxes even if it is $1. That way they feel more ownership of the government that wastes billions of their dollars on stupid crap. I would gladly pay more taxes if I am shown that my investment gets a decent return and isn't wasted on bridges to nowhere and to pay bureaucrats to sit around and meet.

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Stocks Look Cheap According to Bespoke Investment Group

Hmm, this rally might just be returning to the mean which in this case is higher from here. The S&P 500 is currently trading at 1316 for purposes of comparison.

To start 2012, the benchmark had an earnings multiple of 13, the lowest since 1990 and below the 80-year average of 15, according to Bespoke. It would take a move back to 1,484 to get the benchmark back to this long-term mean P/E. 

The price-to-book ratio is 2.05, below the average since the late 1970s of 2.43. To get back to that average P/B, the benchmark would need to increase to 1,491.

One more valuation�dividend yield�points to above 1,400, argue the two strategists.

�At the end of 2011, the S&P 500 was yielding 13 percent more than the 10-Year US Treasury,� wrote Hickey and Walters. �Outside of the credit crisis, the last time the S&P 500 yielded more than the 10-Year Treasury was before 1960."

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I Dislike Newt: But He Smashed John Kings Face with a Verbal Shovel during the Debate

Now this is red meat for the Conservatives out there that can't stand the main stream media and how they protect Obama and just want to destroy Republicans. I love the "No, but I will" line myself. I think this might be his "catch up to Romney" moment.

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Facebook Makes You Unhappy? Maybe this explains the Occupy Movement

Well I guess seeing other smiling and happy and doing things that are "cooler" than their mundane crap is affecting some Facebook users.

"Those who have used Facebook longer agreed more that others were happier, and agreed less that life is fair, and those spending more time on Facebook each week agreed more that others were happier and had better lives," wrote Chou and Edge. "Furthermore, those that included more people whom they did not personally know as their Facebook "friends" agreed more that others had better lives."

I wonder is some of the Occupy protestors are bothered by the "life is less fair" part of the Facebook experience. I mean most of them are 20-somethings who are heavily into Facebook and they see that everyone else is getting bailed out and getting bonuses and it "isn't fair" in their minds.

Perhaps Facebook is creating the myth in their mind. Its like that scene from Trading Places where Dan Aykroyd is standing in the rain outside of the restaurant watching all of his rich ex-friends eating. They see the banksters like they see their Facebook friends with perceived better lives than them and it makes them angry and they protest. The problem is what are they protesting against? Do they want to break the window and come into the restaurant? Or do they just want to steal the food from the patrons?

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GOP Finally Finds Some Sense: Pull Out of SOPA Co-Sponsoring

It's not just my Congress-critter but other heavy hitters in the GOP are starting to get second thoughts about SOPA.

Sen. Rubio follows Rep. Ben Quayle (R-AZ), who pulled his name from the list of SOPA co-sponsors on Tuesday. Rep. Lee Terry (R-NE) also announced plans to withdrawal is name from the SOPA co-sponsor list.

UPDATE: Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX) has also pulled support for SOPA/PIPA. He writes on his Facebook page: �SOPA: better to get this done right rather than fast and wrong. Stealing content is theft, plain and simple, but concerns about unintended damage to the internet and innovation in the tech sector require a more thoughtful balance, which will take more time.�

I mean what Senator/Congressman wants to be responsible for killing a billion dollar industry to prevent people from pirating old copies of Dr. Who? Especially when the people who are pirating Dr. Who will not be effected by SOPA in the least and just find a way around whatever blocks are put in place.

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In a Targeted Hit Piece Gingrich Looks Like a Lecher

Well, the main steam media strikes again although Newt seems to make this stuff too easy.

In her most provocative comments, the ex-Mrs. Gingrich said Newt sought an "open marriage" arrangement so he could have a mistress and a wife. 

She said when Gingrich admitted to a six-year affair with a Congressional aide, he asked her if she would share him with the other woman, Callista, who is now married to Gingrich. 

"And I just stared at him and he said, 'Callista doesn't care what I do,'" Marianne Gingrich told ABC News. "He wanted an open marriage and I refused." 

Marianne described her "shock" at Gingrich's behavior, including how she says she learned he conducted his affair with Callista "in my bedroom in our apartment in Washington." 

Yes Newt banged the mistress in the marriage bed or so his ex-wife claims. This is exactly why this man is unfit to be running against Obama. Even if these allegations are untrue by the time people fact check them they have already done their damage. 

Gingrich would make the election about him and his screwed up private life. It will not be about Obama failing to lead this country out of economic hardship while racking up massive debt. We would have to hear about Newt the Lech's sex life instead of what he will do to fix the economy while pointing out Obama's many failures.

I have heard people say that they want Gingrich in so that he can debate Obama and wipe the floor with him. I have a feeling that Gingrich would come off as a pompous, mean-spirited asshole. Obama would just have to smirk and stay calm and he would win hands down. 

The sooner this idiot drops out of the race the sooner Romney (sigh I guess this boring doof is going to be our nominee) can start to attack Obama on the economy. I mean Obama should be beaten quite handily but he must be licking his chops as the GOP field self-destructs.

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My Congress Critter; Collen Hanabusa Opposes SOPA

Well at least she is good for something other than being the Congresswoman from Inouye:

Dear Mr. Michels,

 

Mahalo for your correspondence regarding H.R. 3261, the Stop Online Piracy Act (SOPA). I appreciate your input on this important issue. 

 

While I support a legislative approach to combating online piracy, I do not support SOPA in its current form. In addressing the large and growing problem of piracy and counterfeiting on foreign websites, Congress must strike a balance that addresses these issues without inadvertently leading us to the slippery slope of government intrusion on the internet.

 

SOPA elicits vigorous debate and I appreciate you taking the time to contact me about this bill. While I do not support H.R. 3261 as it is currently written, I do applaud the work of my House and Senate colleagues in drafting compromise legislation. I look forward to reviewing the alternative proposals as we move forward. 

 

Again, thank you for expressing your views on this crucial issue and I will be sure to keep your thoughts in mind as Congress works toward a compromise. I hope you will continue to contact me on federal matters of concern to you.  If you would like regular updates, please sign up for my e-newsletter at http://hanabusa.house.gov.

 

 

Sincerely,

Colleen Hanabusa
Member of Congress

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Perry Out of Race: Hopefully Gingrich will be Next

Well the hard facts of South Carolina has taken out yet another candidate.

Rick Perry ended his presidential campaign Thursday and endorsed Newt Gingrich's candidacy for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination.

At a press conference in Charleston, S.C., Perry called Gingrich "a conservative visionary who can transform our country."

"Newt is not perfect, but who among us is?" Perry said. "The fact is, there is forgiveness for those who seek God." He mentioned the importance of redemption to Christianity.

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