Friday, December 6, 2013

Unbundling the Cable Industry would Devastate the Crap out of It

Now this is what we call one change damaging an industry to its core.

In a report that attempts to quantify the costs of an � la carte pricing for cable television, Needham & Co.�s Laura Martin estimates that $45 billion of TV advertising would be at risk under such a change, along with 1.4 million jobs, $20 billion in taxes paid by such cable operators as Comcast (CMCSA) and Time Warner Cable (TWC), and $117 billion in market capitalization. And maybe you wouldn�t miss the Christian-themed Smile of a Child channel or Jewelry Television, but if you love any of those niche networks you could almost certainly kiss them goodbye for lack of financial support.

Yeah I noticed the other day that I only watch a few cable channels total. I watch HBO on Demand for Boardwalk Empire, Girls, and soon Game of Thrones and True Detective (which looks great.) ESPN and its various offshoots for College Football, Monday Night Football, NBA and College Basketball and SportsCenter. AMC for Walking Dead. Comedy Central for the Daily Show and the Colbert Report. Cartoon Network for reruns of the Family Guy and American Dad. BBC America for reruns of Star Trek Next Generation. And CNBC for Squawk Box and Mad Money. So 7 channels is pretty much the sum total of my cable viewing. If they let me unbundle my cable I would probably end up with 25 channels or so and end up dumping the rest.

The Case Against a Minimum Wage Hike by Fast Food Retailers

This is a compelling counter argument against raising the minimum wage too highly.

The retail industry is just one in which workers are at risk. It�s hard to find many jobs that are not threatened by automation, by Internet expansion or by overseas competition. That includes people working in the fast food industry � where union organizers are currently pushing for a big jump in minimum pay. They should not assume that burger joints won�t eventually automate. Last year, Momentum Machines in San Francisco previewed an apparatus that created 360 burgers an hour. Noting that the fast food industry spends $9 billion a year on wages, the company predicted a lively reception for its space- and cost-saving machine.

I would be willing to bet that if the minimum wage is hiked to $15 suddenly installing these machines will become a very lucrative alternative to hiring a person to do it. With a machine you can do the following:

1. Regulate the amount that goes into each burger (you can put exactly 2 pickles, 2.5 ounces of lettuce, an exact dab of mayo and ketchup etc) so you can tell costs down to the penny.

2. Put something on the machine to track exactly how many burgers are created and when. It will allow McDonalds headquarters to do trend analysis and such and tinker with production. So if ketchup prices rise they can adjust the amount of ketchup that comes out with a few keystrokes.

3. Stop mistakes in creating the burgers. I once had the strings that tie burgers together still attached to an Ultimate Cheeseburger from Jack-in-the-box one time. That shouldn't happen with an automated burger machine.

4. Fire half or more of your staff. You pretty much only need a person running the register and filling the orders and someone to load and service the automated burger machine. That would probably be a higher paying technical job but you could probably train some staff members to do. Especially if they are getting $15 an hour. Overall there will be far less jobs in the fast food industry then we have now if this burger machine becomes economically viable.

5. Limit the store footprint if you have to reduce the rent per square foot. A burger making machine will probably take up much less space than the aisles and such that humans need. More space can be used for seating and such or just go down to the bottom line as savings in rent.

I guess raising the minimum wage to $15 might invoke the laws of unintended consequences.

Quiznos Circles the Drain

It seems that the Subway-killer of 2008 is running of fumes now.

Quiznos, meanwhile, shrank to about 3,000 stores world-wide two years ago, and to around 2,100 today, including roughly 1,500 stores in the U.S., people familiar with the matter said. Hundreds of the U.S. stores are underperforming and could close in the next year, some of these people said.

I remember that there were tons of Quiznos opening in Hawaii all over the place but they slowly closed their doors one after another. There was one in Ala Moana I used to go to every now and then but I stopped going after I tried to redeem a coupon for a free cookie with a meal deal and they wouldn't honor it. I would have just gotten only the sandwich if I didn't have the coupon.

So this advertisement did what it was supposed to do by getting me in the door and altered my normal buying behavior. However, it lost me as a customer because they didn't honor something and had no sign saying "we do not accept coupons." Instead they waited until I was ready to pay before springing this on me. I seriously felt like walking out the door but I was hungry. That Ala Moana franchise went out of business a few months later.

It seems franchisees are up against long odds:

Current and former franchisees said high costs ate into stores' profitability, causing many to close. With fewer stores contributing to an advertising fund, the chain had fewer resources to promote new products, hurting sales, which resulted in more store closures, they said.

"It's a vicious cycle," said Brian Peticolas, who owns a Quiznos in Alton, Ill. "I almost closed my store five months ago, but I didn't have any other prospects so I kept the doors open."

Mr. Peticolas said his store averages $5,000 a week in sales, down from $7,000 a week three years ago. He estimates the restaurant is losing up to $300 a week.

"I've had two Quiznos close near me recently and I've been getting calls from people asking if I'm still open," Mr. Peticolas said. "We're not visible, so people wonder if all the Quiznos have closed."

This was the case in Mililani. My dad and I did not know if the local Quiznos was open or closed and decided to chance it. Luckily it was open but we had no way of telling that fact. There was only one employee who looked like the franchisee and she was running everything all by herself. Luckily we were the only customers in the store. After we got our food I was kind of regretting not going to Subway instead because they have toasted subs as well.

Wednesday, December 4, 2013

The Guy that Wanted to Poop on Sarah Palin, Martin Bashir, Resigns

I guess advocating copraphage on a former Alaska governor can actually get you fired at MSNBC after all.


And the statement from MSNBC President Phil Griffin on his resignation:

�Martin Bashir resigned today, effective immediately. I understand his decision and I thank him for three great years with MSNBC. Martin is a good man and respected colleague � we wish him only the best.�

Bashir hasn't hosted his normal 4 p.m. show for the past two weeks. When asked about his absence, a network spokesperson only said that he was on vacation. The spokesperson didn't respond to follow-up requests asking if he had been suspended.

I guess he fell on his sword rather then being shown the door himself. In any case the less people that throw around this sort of rhetoric the better America will be.


Red Chinese Heap Pressure on Kids and Ace PISA Test: Check With Me When they Win a Bunch of Nobel Prizes

Well it seems that the Chinese can certainly teach to the test.

As a ninth-grader, Shanghai's Li Sixin spent more than three hours on homework a night and took tutorials in math, physics and chemistry on the weekends. When she was tapped to take an exam last year given to half a million students around the world, Li breezed through it.

Sounds impressive if you want to build a test-taking robot.

"They listen carefully in the class and do the homework," said Bai Bing, the headmaster of Li's school, where about 40 students were chosen to take the global test. "They respect the teachers, and do exactly the assignments that teachers ask them to do."

"And it is a tradition that the Asians pay more attention to mathematics," Bai said.

If Li Sixin wins the Fields Medal for Mathematics then I will be impressed. Until then "teaching to the test" does not guarantee that these kids will actually be able to turn this knowledge into something greater. Looking at the Chinese-born Nobel Laureates I see that the hard science guys did their thing at American universities and labs. It seems that the rich Chinese parents know this.

Ironically, many Chinese parents � especially those with means and bemoaning the pressure their children must endure in local schools � are increasingly sending their children overseas for what they consider a more well-rounded education.

Our PISA test taking might be 20th but I would put our universities head-to-head with anything that Red China has to offer.

Millennials turn on Obamacare and Obama Himself

Well I guess they are finally understanding that Obamacare is ripping them off in order so the old and the sick can get cheaper rates.

A new poll out today from Harvard University's Institute of Politics shows that the majority of young people, a core support group throughout President Obama's time in office, disapproves of the Affordable Care Act, with less than a third saying they would sign up, an essential element to the success of Obamacare.

The survey polled 18- to 29-year-olds, and twice as many respondents said they believe health care under the Affordable Care Act will get worse than get better - 44 percent to 17 percent. And half of the respondents said they believe costs will increase while about 10 percent said costs will decrease.

Hey Millennials you are supposed to buy insurance at higher prices in order for others to have savings. You are supposed to lower the "risk pool" so that the whole creaky edifice that is Obamacare can work. You are supposed to pay for insurance for years and never use it or pay a penalty levied by the IRS of all people. There is nothing like paying $300+ for student loan debts and then adding another $250 for insurance that you must buy or be fined.

I also love the sop that the White House keeps using by saying that you can stay on your parents insurance until you are 26. I'm pretty sure some Millennials feel bad enough that they cannot find a decent job on the O-bomb-economy and cannot move out of their parents home. They then have to use their parents insurance (if it didn't get cancelled by Obamacare) like they were still in 3rd grade.

It seems that the bloom is off the rose for Obama in general in the eyes of the Millenials.

The president's approval ratings have also plummeted and are at the lowest point this survey has found since the beginning of his administration. Among 18- to 29-year-olds, the survey found 41 percent approve and 54 percent disapprove, an 11-point decline in seven months.

Lying to people about your signature domestic policy does that to a guy.


Tuesday, December 3, 2013

College Scorecard from Whitehouse.gov Has to Define the word "scholarship"

I was pointed to the College Scorecard website by this article and I had to laugh at what came up.

The average net price for undergraduate in-state students is $10,484 per year. Net price is what undergraduate students pay after grants and scholarships (financial aid you don�t have to pay back) are subtracted from the institution�s cost of attendance.

They actually had to give a definition of the word "scholarship" for some reason. I had to do a double take because is you don't know what that word means maybe college isn't the kind of place for you. It probably means your high school was so bad that you don't know certain very basic vocabulary words. In any case this College Scorecard is a pretty decent tool. You can compare a perfectly okay state school to some "expensive for nothing" private school that no one has ever heard of.

Monday, December 2, 2013

Black Friday Physical Sales Down: People Buy Online Instead

Well at least some people are smart enough to avoid death and dismemberment at the mall this black Friday.

Customers may have been fighting each other over store sales this past weekend. But, they weren't spending as much. According to the National Retail Federation, Thanksgiving weekend store traffic was up 27% from last year. However, total sales were $57.4 billion, a drop of nearly 3% from 2012. So, should retailers be worried?

Maybe not, says CNBC contributor Andrew Busch, editor and publisher of The Busch Update. The reason has to do with online sales. ComScore sees Black Friday's online shopping up 15% compared to last year. And, while stores may have opened earlier on Thanksgiving Day this year to compensate for the shorter 2013 shopping season, online Thanksgiving shopping was up 21% compared to last year. Shoppers may have avoided bedlam at the stores by pointing-and-clicking at home.

Yup even though those stores were open at 6PM or midnight those people just rolled over after a turkey fueled slumber and got up late on Friday and logged onto Amazon. That is how Black Friday should go. I did some Black Friday browsing but didn't actually buy anything because the deal on Nexus 7s at Staples.com was sold out. If it was in stock I would have bought it for sure.

Friday, November 9, 2012

GOP "Get Religion" on Immigration Reform at Long Last

It is funny to see how the GOP is starting to "evolve" on immigration reform.

"This issue has been around far too long," Boehner said. "A comprehensive approach is long overdue, and I'm confident that the president, myself, others can find the common ground to take care of this issue once and for all."

Just two years ago, Boehner said it was worth considering amending the U.S. Constitution to end birthright citizenship, because he said it might discourage people from illegally crossing the border. Boehner was also opposed to President George W. Bush's attempt to pass immigration reform.

Bush was prescient on this issue and it took losing the Latino vote by 70% in two strait Presidential elections to have them see the light. You can't treat 20 million people like hunted criminals and hope to get their friends and relatives to vote for you. The GOP needs to stop any "your papers please" laws going forward because they infringe on personal liberty which used to be a big deal in their party. 

Also Bush understood that speaking Spanish and reaching out to Latino communities might pay off for the GOP as well. Latinos seem to have quite a bit in common and might vote Republican much faster than Blacks or single women. Actually, all the GOP needs to do is split the Latino vote 50/50 and they have a better chance of winning Nevada, Colorado, and New Mexico again.

Thursday, November 8, 2012

Even Though I Don't Like Gingrich: What he Says Resonates

I usually think Gingrich is a huge bloviating moron but these words are spot-on.

"The question is do they want to, in a disciplined way, create a schedule and a program and include people who are not traditionally Republican?" Gingrich said during a Wednesday interview on CNN's "Starting Point With Soledad O'Brien." "The difference between outreach and inclusion, is outreach is when five white guys have a meeting and call you," he continued. "Inclusion is when you're in the meeting."

Yeah the GOP needs to not be 5 white guys in a room making decisions.They need to throw that tent wide and make sure there are Blacks, Hispanics, Asians, and women in that room from here on in.

Wednesday, November 7, 2012

The Biggest Winner for the 2012 Election: Math?

Well, I didn't believe Nate Silver but he shows that a mathematical analysis might be the way to go to handicap election's in the future. All that gut-feeling stuff is not the same as cold-hard math.

This year, according to all projections, Silver�s model has correctly predicted 50 out of 50 states. A last-minute flip for Florida, which finally went blue in Silver�s prediction on Monday night, helped him to a perfect game. 

A caveat: Florida has not yet been called officially, but Obama is in the lead with 98% of precincts reporting. If anything, Silver�s placing of Florida on a knife edge makes him look even more prescient. No wonder one of the night�s more popular tweets suggested that he was actually from the future, working from old newspapers.

I think his idea of taking all the polls and weighting them for historical accuracy is a very sound one. The idea that all the polls were used is what took some of the bias out of the equations. So you can have some polls (CNN) oversampling Democrats but others (Wall Street Journal) may have under-sampled them. Then he weighted them according to accuracy. That seems like a sound plan because the electorate seemed very much the same as in 2008. So if the poll was right in 2008 it should have been right in 2012.

The GOP made the mistake of thinking the electorate had changed from 2008 to 2012 and that did them in. I guess Silver needs to pick stocks next because I would love to see if his algorithm will work on Wall Street. Maybe he can use a mix of research Buy/Sell/Hold calls and newsletter picks as his "polls" for each stock to see if they hold up.

Why Romney Lost

Well everyone else are doing the post-mortem on why Romney lost so I might as well add my own. The problems with Romney were there from the very start. He is generally a white country-club conservative cut from similar cloth that John Kerry was. He was the Republican Kerry. Romney was portrayed as a clueless rich guy and quite a few of his actions pounded that point home. He only came on after the last debate because he seemed like a fairly caring individual that wanted to do well for the country. Also Obama looked like he didn't give a crap until the final week of the election. Here are some of the reasons why I think Romney lost and some tonics for the GOP going forward.



1. Hispanics are a force to be reckoned with.

I think the GOP ignoring the fastest growing group in the US is going to cost them many elections unless they change their tune. That means no more talk of "self-deportation" or other nonsense. Also building fences or demonizing illegals cannot be a plank in the GOP platform going forward. The GOP needs to embrace immigration reform and allow Obama to "win" on this issue. There needs to be some form of amnesty on the books. The GOP idea that an illegal is taking away an American's job needs to die in 2012. Make that illegal an American that pays his taxes and becomes a solid citizen and not a hunted man. Then make him a Republican.

I mean whenever Romney talked about "self-deportation" a Hispanic voter thought he wants to send my grandma back to Guatemala even though she's lived here since the 70s. The GOP needs to figure a way for that person's grandma to stay in this country and not have to fear being deported. If that means amnesty then so be it. There needs to be some mechanism in place because you cannot deport 20 million people.

After this Hispanic voter can be assured of safety for his family the GOP can appeal to his other issues using traditional GOP methods. That means pushing for economic security, good jobs, and his appealing to his faith. Hispanics seem to be more religious as a group than other voting blocs so reaching out here can peel some of them away from the generally nonreligious (or openly anti-religious) Democrats.


2. 47% of Americans are Lazy Parasites

This one hidden video cost him the election IMO. Obama needs to send a fruit basket to Mother Jones because they won it for him. There is a deep-seated idea that the GOP are a bunch of heartless assholes that want to steal from the poor and give the money to the rich. I mean nearly shutting down the government to protect a 3% tax hike on people making over $1 million does that to you.

The GOP used to fight for the little guy. The small businessman or the middle class American that wants to build a good life for himself. Romney talked about helping the Middle Class but far too late to do any good. He kept having to fend off the "tax cuts for the rich" crap that Obama kept hitting him with.

Then when he was caught talking to the GOP big-money men saying that people won't vote for him because they are used to living on the dole it rubs those little guys the wrong way. The whole idea of personal responsibility is a crock when you look at how the recession is kicking peoples asses. I mean there are vast majorities of Americans that did everything right and still got smashed. They need the government to be there for them or they starve to death.

This 47% crack is especially galling coming from a guy that has a elevator for his cars and owns a dressage horse. I mean how do you appeal to a middle class voter from Ohio or Pennsylvania when you are more worried about your dressage horse competing in the Olympics than trying to be president? That idea of the clueless rich-guy that doesn't understand your pain doomed Romney from the very start.


3. Losing the Women's vote

I think going after Planned Parenthood by saying you will shut them down was a huge mistake. Even though PP does abortions they do quite a bit of good for poor women. If they wanted to get rid of it the GOP needed to come up with an alternative. Maybe free vouchers that women could use for women's health that didn't pay for abortions. Even saying that they would "reform" PP to get rid of the abortions instead of just killing the program would have been a better idea. If I was advising Romney I would have told him to dump the whole issue.

Also the idea that the government should or shouldn't pay for contraception was an idiotic argument to make. I mean this issue just comes down to weather church sponsored hospitals would carry it or not. If you give them an "opt-out" then the issue is solved. Young women today should be afforded free contraception just because they will bear the consequences of an unplanned pregnancy. The grognards in the GOP like that guy that said give women aspirin so they keep their legs shut need to be drummed out of the party. This is a big issue for some women so the GOP needed to figure a way to get the job done so that it didn't offend religious groups.

Speaking of grognards, the GOP needs to banish every single one of them that have some weird-assed definition of rape. Men like Akin and Mourdock have no place in a party that wants to win more than 43% of the women's vote. The GOP should have tried to not only distance themselves from these guys but offered a different candidate instead. If that wasn't possible, then condemn them in the strongest possible terms, and de-fund their campaigns. It's 2012 so why is the GOP still "defining" rape or even talking about it in an election?


4. Trying to Say the 2008 Election was a fluke that didn't carry over to 2012

I actually believed this one so Romney can't be faulted too badly for following it. I really think that the electorate has changed from 2004 to 2012. There are more urbanites, women, Blacks, and Hispanics than ever before as part of the voting block. The bad part is that they are solidly Democratic. There are just less angry-white guys than ever that before that will vote for your rich country-club guy.

So the GOP needs to open the tent to everyone that wants fiscal security, good jobs, and a growing economy. So that means they need to start courting some of these groups that are supposed to be Democratic with these ideas. They aren't race specific or gender specific and appeal to all Americans.

I think it was shameful how the GOP drummed out Michael Steele and replaced him with some milquetoast white dude with a funny name. I mean this Priebus guy needs to get fired because the GOP has become the "rich white-guy party" again on his watch. The "rich white-guy party" will never again win a national election because the electorate has changed forever. The swing states are mostly large urban areas with minorities living in them. You can't win an election without appealing to them.


5. It's the Economy Stupid

This should have been a slam-dunk election because Obama is an epic bumbler when it comes to the economy. Trillions wasted on stimulus that didn't stimulate anything. Then he tackled health care before jobs. We have more people on food stamps then ever before. We had 4 years of economic stagnation. Obama is just inept when it comes to the thing Americans are concerned about the most.

Then when it looked like Obama didn't care enough to even prepare for the 1st Debate you would figure that Romney had it. Instead he seemed to fumble it away right at the end. Obama looked presidential and FEMA looked heroic during Hurricane Sandy and that brief moment Romney could have won was over. Romney wanted to get rid of FEMA for the sake of fiscal austerity and that cost him.

Now people are blaming Christie for saying that Obama was a decent enough guy that helped his state. That was just the truth as Christie saw it. A disaster is when you need the government the most. I don't mind paying my taxes for FEMA as long as as "old Brownie" Michael Brown doesn't run it. A well run government that doesn't waste my money is preferable to an "every man for himself" one.

But in his zeal to cut everything Romney needed to think before he talked. I mean what better way can FEMAs $14 billion budget be better spent? I mean making cash-strapped states pay for their own disaster clean-up is asinine. They have balanced budgets so they cant afford $50 billion when they can barely keep the lights on. That is the states fault for wasting their money but the Feds need to backstop when a disaster strikes.

In any case fiscal austerity does not equate to any swing state votes. We would all like a smaller government but it needs to be cut in practical terms. That means not talk of cutting FEMA during a disaster or getting rid of Planned Parenthood unless there is a better use of the money out there. I guess the idea of making the government spend my money (and China's) better is what I would prefer to slash-and-burn cuts that Romney seemed to back. People seem to like the government that is in place so cutting it needs to be done slowly and with more thought.

The Market Speaks: Obama's Win costs 2.37% to the Downside

Well it is time to buy Medicaid Servicers like Centene (CNC) and Hospital Stocks like Tenet (THC) because Obamacare is are very real reality going forward. You might also see some companies saving a good bit of expense by dropping their insurance plans and making people buy from the "exchanges."

The only thing Obama better not mess with is the shale oil boom. If the EPA jumps all over fracking we will be back to begging Saudi Arabia for oil and having to fight wars in the Middle East every few years. Hopefully all this "green energy" talk I keep hearing means a move to Natural Gas as our fuel of choice for the next few decades.

The idea of an energy independent America is something that really needs to be explored. Imagine if we can get gas prices down and convert our power plants to Natural gas and nuclear. We would even be a net exporter of energy and reverse some of our trade imbalance. Finally, we would finally not need to be policing the Middle East very much at all. This is a good thing because we won't need to fight a war there anytime soon. But it will also be bad because without us snooping around the Jihadis are taking control from the kleptocracies. The next 9/11 might be launched out of Syria or Egypt.

Obama Wins! *Sigh*

Well Nate Silver was right and I was wrong. Obama won quite handily so we will have 4 more years of gridlock and economic stagnation to look forward to. In any case they better get us off the "fiscal cliff" before we see more damage done to the economy.

Monday, November 5, 2012

Fearless Prediction for the 2012 Presidential Election

I think this will be the final tally for tomorrows election:

311 Romney
227 Obama

I just see 311 and Romney giving an inauguration speech. I am probably wrong but I'll go ahead and make a prediction anyway. I'll post the real final tally tomorrow.