Monday, August 3, 2009

Government Revenue the Lowest Since 1932

I think these should be some sobering numbers.

The numbers could hardly be more stark: Tax receipts are on pace to drop 18 percent this year, the biggest single-year decline since the Great Depression, while the federal deficit balloons to a record $1.8 trillion.

The problem is that Obama and Pelosi what to dump even more taxes on people even though they aren't getting too many revenues in the first place. The more I look at it the more I think Obama might just put us into a double dip recession.

ObamaCare Should Give up this Savings Fallacy

I think the ObamaCare supporters should give up this line of defense because it makes no sense.

The White House stands by its claims. Its allies claim that CBO forecasts, for instance, don't reflect potential future cost savings that might be expected from the prevention of illness achieved from wider health care coverage.

I think they need to understand that health insurance and health care are two totally different things. When more people sign up for a service that didn't have it before it consumes more of that service. You are increasing the demand side without decreasing the supply side.

Also I'm not convinced that if everyone had health insurance they will all rush out to the doctor. The only way they could get these savings is by the government forcing mandatory checkups. If this money instead went to free or tax subsidized mini clinics then I can see it making a dent. However, obesity will still be rampant and no amount of health insurance will magically cure that.

Friday, July 31, 2009

The Top 1% Now Pays more then 95% of All Tax Payers

Now is the time to bury all of the talk about the "rich" not paying their fair share.

Indeed, the IRS data shows that in 2007�the most recent data available�the top 1 percent of taxpayers paid 40.4 percent of the total income taxes collected by the federal government. This is the highest percentage in modern history. By contrast, the top 1 percent paid 24.8 percent of the income tax burden in 1987, the year following the 1986 tax reform act.

Remarkably, the share of the tax burden borne by the top 1 percent now exceeds the share paid by the bottom 95 percent of taxpayers combined. In 2007, the bottom 95 percent paid 39.4 percent of the income tax burden. This is down from the 58 percent of the total income tax burden they paid twenty years ago.

And people wonder why there will be a jobless recovery.

GDP Drop Starting to Ease

Well, we are coming close to the end of the recession and we might eventually see growth in the later part of this year.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that GDP, or the total output of goods and services produced in the U.S., dipped by an annual rate of 1% in the spring. The advance estimate bettered most forecasts, as many economists expected a 1.5% slide.

The only problem is that consumer spending is still in the doldrums

However, consumer spending, or the lack there of, remains a nagging weight on the economy. The report noted that consumer spending slid 1.2% during the quarter, as compared to a 0.6% upswing during the first quarter. Consumers are likely to keep their wallets tucked in tight as unemployment figures continue to falter.

Too bad the failed stimulus did not have some more things in it similar to "cash for clunkers" that gave people financial incentives to buy things. If the Dems are serious about Stimulus 2 they should call it the "tax cut for everyone" and cut payroll taxes for 1 year or something like that. I think Americans will sign on for substantially more money in their paychecks.

Thursday, July 30, 2009

Beer Summit Goes Off Fairly Well: Now Fix the Economy!

I think Obama has had enough distractions it should be time to start thinking about getting Americans back to work. I think the silly season in Washington should be winding down right about now. In fact I hope this doesn't have to happen again:

The White House meeting drew such media interest that press secretary Robert Gibbs said he looked forward to facing no more questions about what beers each man would drink. For the record, it was Bud Light for Obama, Sam Adams Light for Gates, Blue Moon for Crowley and nonalcoholic Buckler for Biden.

Yes Gibbs is fielding questions about beer choices instead of on what the White House has to say about them beating people in the streets of Tehran yet again. Or how they will solve double digit unemployment or what are they going to do now that the stimulus failed. In other words the actual work of the country not some silly racial crap.

Congress Suspends Cash for Clunkers

Yup, the government underestimated the demand and thus didn't have enough money set aside to cover the plan.

The Transportation Department called congressional offices late Thursday to alert them to the decision to halt the program, which offered owners of old cars and trucks $3,500 or $4,500 toward a new, more fuel-efficient vehicle.

And they want to run everyone's health insurance? Anyone that believes that the government run plan can actually reduce costs should just look at Cash for Clunkers. A good idea but poorly executed and then ultimately suspended when costs ran up too quickly.

Senate ObamaCare Bill May be Pushed Back to December?

Wow, anyone who thought they could get this done by August was absolutely nuts.

"The president wanted to have it on his desk in October," said Sen. Tom Harkin, D-Iowa. "He'll probably have it in November now. But I'm very hopeful we'll get it done at least by that time."

Senior aides and lawmakers said privately they thought Harkin was being overly optimistic, and warned of work spreading late into December on the highly controversial issue.

Sen. Mike Enzi, R-Wyo., one of six lawmakers involved in bipartisan talks, said the legislation wasn't "ready for prime time."

What is funny is that some far-left liberals say they should just shove it through with 50 Democrat votes and damn the torpedoes. I think that would be political suicide because that bill will be hung on Democrats forever. If it fails (and it probably will) the GOP can use it as a big club to hit them with for perpetuity.

Poll Shows Obama Misahandled Race Debate

It seems that Obama should have simply said "I do not have enough information to comment on this story at this time. Next question." and it will have all been behind him. Instead this screw up may have cost him in the short term.

The poll by the nonpartisan Pew Research Center found that 41 percent disapproved of Obama's handling of the Gates arrest, compared with 29 percent who approved. The poll also found the incident and Obama's reaction saturated the public consciousness. As many as 80 percent of Americans said they are now aware of Obama's comments on the matter.

Wednesday, July 29, 2009

The Market Rallies as the Obama Agenda Fails?

In other words go short anything that Obama pushes then wait until Congress screws things up and then you can go back long again. I did this with the Health Insurers by going short them when Health Care nationalization talk heated up. Then I covered and went back long as the debate wore on and took profits on the news that the Senate might strip the public plan out of the bill. Trading off Obama is sometimes quite lucrative.

Since then, the bankruptcy bill has fizzled and nationalization talk has died out. President Barack Obama did sign a credit card bill into law, but its provisions were much weaker than the industry feared.

Separately, healthcare reform has slowed while a climate change bill imposing taxes on businesses that emit pollutants has stalled in the Senate.

Stock markets, meanwhile, have rallied to their highest levels of the year. The Standard & Poor�s 500 Index began this week within striking distance of 1,000 points.

�It�s very much a factor in what�s driving the market over the last couple weeks,� Gardner said of the slowed agenda in Washington.

I think it has more to do with certainty going back into some sectors of the market that came from paying back the TARP money so quickly. Now traders can trade in peace without the government telling them what they should be paid or some uninformed person telling them about the Profit and Earnings Ratios of the market.

Tuesday, July 28, 2009

ObamaCare Gets Stranger and Stranger: Now there is an Unelected Health Commissar?

You have to be kidding me. Mining these bills is like turning over rocks to see what sort of bugs are under them. This part should make every American shudder.

Republicans want voters to know as much as possible. "If I went to most people and said there was an unelected health choices commissioner, with the power to override state law on what should or should not be included in an acceptable insurance plan -- most people would not know that," says Camp. They wouldn't like it, either.

Yup, this Health Choices Commissar could pretty much have the power of life and death over vast swaths of the American public. In other words if you have end stage Prostate Cancer and Provenge can extend your life by 6 months then this unelected official gets to nix whether any insurance plan in the country will cover it or not. The doctor doesn't decide, the patient doesn't decide, Dendreon sure doesn't decide, but this Health Choices Commissar gets to decide.

I wonder if he gets the power to punish the Secretary of Health and Human Services if she goes against his iron commands as well? Lord Commissar "we wish to put Avastin upon the Master List of Approved Remedies." The Commissar replies in a cold, tone devoid of all emotion "it is not cost effective Ms. Sebelius. You are a fool to ask. Seize Her!"

ObamaCare Taketh Away: Read the Bills they are Scary Stuff

I think these kind of articles where people actually sit down and read the bills being discussed do a people far more of a service then prime time press conferences talking about "you will keep your medical insurance and your doctor." I would love to see the Obama people go point by point against this article.

If you prize choosing your own cardiologist or urologist under your company's Preferred Provider Organization plan (PPO), if your employer rewards your non-smoking, healthy lifestyle with reduced premiums, if you love the bargain Health Savings Account (HSA) that insures you just for the essentials, or if you simply take comfort in the freedom to spend your own money for a policy that covers the newest drugs and diagnostic tests -- you may be shocked to learn that you could lose all of those good things under the rules proposed in the two bills that herald a health-care revolution.

In short, the Obama platform would mandate extremely full, expensive, and highly subsidized coverage -- including a lot of benefits people would never pay for with their own money -- but deliver it through a highly restrictive, HMO-style plan that will determine what care and tests you can and can't have. It's a revolution, all right, but in the wrong direction.

Yup it seems it is heavy handed rationing disguised as "reform." It also strait-up rips off younger more healthy people and gives the money to older more sick people.

So in other words that girl that runs 5 times a week and eats a diet free of saturated fats and sugar will be paying the health insurance of some morbidly obese dude that eats two Ultimate Cheeseburgers at a sitting and washes them down with a Super-sized Oreo Shake. Both of these people will pay nearly the same amount and have a health plan with the exact same costs. What is so fair about that?

ObamaCare's Economic Fallout: The Keynesian

This is a great article talking about the uncertainty that ObamaCare is bringing to small and large businesses alike and how that uncertainty is slowing down the Recovery.

Prudent businessmen and prudent individuals alike have thus been given an additional motive for hoarding cash rather than investing and consuming. No one knows how his financial situation will be affected by health reform, if it is is enacted. There is enormous and I think justified distrust of the government's ability to design and execute so ambitious a program as the Administration and the congressional leadership envisage.

The problem too is that the Obama people are blasting uncertainty into the stratosphere. Consumers and producers already have to deal with the possibility of cap-and-tax and whatever unintended consequences that could still come out of the failed stimulus.

Plus, we are looking forward to massive inflation and debt loads in the future that people know are going to be huge but are uncertain how huge. So companies hold cash and fail to hire workers and we have a jobless recovery.

One irony is that if Obama simply waited until we were coming out of the recovery (2010 - 2011) things would be better and it would have been easier to pass his social agenda. Instead he jumped the gun and tried to cram everything down our throats. Now all of his bets are on a recovery in 2010 - 2011 that needs to be pretty robust. A jobless malaise will make him a one termer.

Obama Lost At Least One Voter from Police "Stupidity" Attack

I think this officer, Ms. Kelly King should consider a run in politics.

Monday, July 27, 2009

EA Viral Marketing Fails Again: Dante's Fondlers

I think it may be about time for them to change out their marketing people.

In an effort to promote the title at last week's San Diego Comic-Con event, EA decided to run a contest asking showgoers to "commit acts of lust" with any models working at the convention's myriad booths. They were then instructed to submit photos via social networking sites like Twitter or Facebook. The winner would receive "dinner and a sinful night with two hot girls, a limo service, paparazzi and a chest full of booty," while five runners-up would have to make do with a copy of the game, a $240 gift card and assorted game merchandise.

Yup, this sure seems like a veiled threat to sexually harass the women working the Dante's Inferno booth. There is nothing like a bunch of sweaty Comic-Con geeks trying to win some prize that will make these "booth babes" jobs just a little bit harder. My money is on many asses grabbed, many breasts fondled, and hopefully many geeks with their noses broken.

Then this "top fondler" will actually get a chance to win a limo ride with what sounds like hookers on EAs dime. These so-called "hot girls" will probably be bored out of their mind and generally stare out of the limo's windows. These girls will probably wonder why they have to put up with the roaming hands of a sweaty geek that "grabbed the most ass to win a contest." Real classy EA.

The messed up part is what is wrong with handing out copies of Dante's Inferno? Too high brow for the gamer hoi polloi who are generally college educated and may have actually read the source material? Hell, they could make it all gory and put plenty of nudity in the thing to better reflect who EA thinks is their true customer.

CBO Blasts ObamaCare Yet Again

It seems that ObamaCare keeps running into cold, hard, facts every time it tries to make claims that it cannot vouch for.

But on Saturday, the Congressional Budget Office said the proposal to give an independent panel the power to keep Medicare spending in check would only save about $2 billion over 10 years- a drop in the bucket compared to the bill's $1 trillion price tag.

"In CBO's judgment, the probability is high that no savings would be realized ... but there is also a chance that substantial savings might be realized. Looking beyond the 10-year budget window, CBO expects that this proposal would generate larger but still modest savings on the same probabilistic basis," CBO Director Douglas Elmendorf wrote in a letter to House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer on Saturday.