2012 Pedictions: Entertainment and Sports

Entertainment:

1. Brad Pitt and Angelina Jolie stay together throughout the year and are quite happy. Jennifer Aniston gets married during the year but divorces soon afterward.

2. The Kardasians are forgotten as a brand as more and more people jump on a boycott bandwagon. Their show is cancelled on E! and they are largely forgotten by the end of the year.

3. New Shows of 2012:

Renewed: Napoleon Dynamite, Lost Girl, Touch, Luck, Apartment 23
Cancelled: Work It, The Firm, Are You there Chelsey?, Rob, The Finder, Alcatraz, Smash, The River, GCB, Fashion Star, Missing, Scandal, The 2-2, Awake, Bent, Best Friends Forever

4. Top 10 Movies in Order of Box Office for 2012:

Dark Knight Rises,The Hobbit, Twilight Part: Breaking Dawn 2, Avengers, Hunger Games, 007 Skyfall, Men in Black 3, Expendables 2, Wrath of the Titans, World War Z,
Overall box office is down from 2011 and 3D becomes a totally dead issue.

Sports:

College Football National Title: LSU
College Basketball National Title: Ohio State
NFL: Green Bay Packers
NBA: Miami Heat
MLB: Texas Rangers
NASCAR: Jimmie Johnson
NHL: Chicago Blackhawks
Premier League Title: Manchester City

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2012 Predictions: Politics and the Economy

Well, its prediction time again:

Politics:

1. Mitt Romney will be the GOP nominee and will poll well against Obama at first but will draw even as the campaign goes into high gear. Obama will win a squeaker that will have the taint of fraud in several districts but he will still win a second term. The GOP captures the Senate and the government becomes effectively divided. As a result not much is done.

2. There is a massive fight over the budget with Obama's and the GOPs differing by a wide margin. No compromise is put forth and the GOPs budget passes easily is vetoed and Obama is narrowly overturned.  This becomes a pattern for much of the legislation passed in 2012

3. Obamacare is ruled partially unconstitutional and is sent back to the Congress for fixes. It is gutted by the GOP and Obama vetoes the greatly watered down bill that comes out of Congress. Obama uses the Department of Health to impose some Obamacare tenets that Congress throws out. This becomes a pattern in 2012.

4. There is a crisis and civil war in North Korea as the generals try to seize power from the ineffectual Kim Jong Un. China and South Korea are on high alert but much of the fighting is in the streets of Pyongyang between Kim Jong Un loyalists and the break-away generals. The break-away generals seize power and a military dictatorship that is more open to the west takes power by the end of the year.

5. Iran his hit hard by sanctions against their oil industry and tries to rattle the saber in retaliation. Oil prices rise to $130 before things settle back down. The Green Revolution begins in earnest as the Iran slowly moves the way of Egypt and the rest of the Arab Spring countries. Large demonstrations break out all over Iran and the Mullacrocy totters toward oblivion. Oil stays high throughout the year due to Iranian instability. Many Iranian students are gunned down before the UN steps in and quells violence.

Economy:

1. More green shoots begin to form in certain sectors and the housing market improves slightly. However, Europe still overhangs everything but a solution to the debt crisis is finally reached by spring. High oil prices challenge the recovery and India and China begin to cut back on the demand side of the equation. Worldwide growth slows as Europe enters a recession by Fall.

2. The market rallies early on but high oil prices takes its toll as growth slows. The market is in a holding pattern and trends downward as Obama is re-elected. Companies still hold vast reserves of cash but Obamacare being struck down by the Supreme Court allows some of it to flow again. GDP growth trends to 3% by the winter of 2012. The US economy does not go back into recession.

3. Unemployment stays at the 8 - 9% level for much of the year as absolutely nothing is done to create jobs. The payroll tax cut and other half-measures continue throughout the year. Companies slowly start to hire and things look somewhat better toward the end of the year.

4. Facebook's IPO does decently but does not come in as the blockbuster that many predicted in the past. Slowing growth and waning ad dollars are sited as the reason for the muted response. Many users stop using Facebook altogether and a "Is Facebook Dead" story is circulated by the end of the year.

5. SOPA does not pass due to the agitation of Google, Ebay, Facebook and other large sites mobilizing against the Congress and the supporters of the Bill. The general public learns about the issue as net titans take to the airwaves against SOPA. Talk of the bill dominates the news for the early part of 2012 and it is defeated by a very wide margin.

6. Here are the numbers for the various indices for the end of 2012:

Dow: 12800
NASDAQ: 2850
S&P 500: 1320
Eur/Dollar: 0.98
10 Year Bond: 2.10%
Gold: $1310 and ounce
Oil: $113 a barrel

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2011 Predictions Revisited

One of the fun things about running this blog for multiple years is that I can look back at the predictions I had for the past year to see how I'm doing. Here is a recap:

Politics:
1. Gridlock in Washington : Yeeap (in the words of that asshole guy on Storage Wars) The only thing that came out of Washington in 2011 was a bunch of rhetoric and people not doing anything. That is usually good for the market but stupid European debt dashed any rally.

2. Debt Ceiling Fight: Yeeap; That was an easy call though.

3. Supreme Court Ruling on Obamacare (TBA) this one isn't over yet

4. Big names for GOP nod: Right on Gingrich, Pawlenty running, and Palin not running. Was wrong on Ryan, Cantor and Patreus running.

Economy:
1. Recovering Economy: much slower than my prediction mostly due to Obama being in office and the massive debt he has put onto us. Also the damn Eurozone (minus Germany and France) gorging on debt and not wanting to pay their credit card bills.

2. Stock market rises. European debt shenanigans smashed this prediction.

3. Unemployment drops to 8%, we dipped into it a few times in 2011 but not enough to matter much.

4. Europe Limping along with Germany leading the pack. No defaults. Yeeap. This was a pretty easy call seeing how bad Greece, Italy, Spain, etc. have screwed up their economies with high debt and freebies to everyone.

5. Emerging market growth. This is still kind of happening but it is a little muted due to European slowdown and its knock-on effects

6. Prediction:                         Actual
    Dow: 13,200                     12,287
    NASDAQ: 3500                 2,613
    S&P500: 1700                    1,263
    GDP Growth: 4.5%             1.8%
    Gold: $1150                       $1547
    Silver: $25.50                    $27.87
    Oil: $98                             $99.66

Entertainment:
1. Brad Pitt and Angelina Jolie still an item.

2. American Idol and Survivor have low ratings compared to past seasons. TV is still dominated by NCIS: various and the Law and Orders on NBC are all but finished on TV with only SVU limping along. I give this prediction a Yeaap

3. Facebook Backlash and Twitter drop off. This is a partial Yeeap since it seems that growth is starting to slow just in time for the IPO. Zynga's damp squib IPO also shows that social network gaming may not be the money spinner that people have though in the past. I guess attending your fake crops is only fun for a few months and then it becomes a chore that is easily forgotten.

4. Tablet market divided between Apple and Google. This is a full Yeeup because it is pretty much Apple vs Google fighting on a mountaintop surrounded by the dying corpses of Sony, and Blackberry and everyone else that made a tablet that is now so much garbage. Amazon is hanging in there though.

Sports:
I'm still not a good predictor of who will win what in the sporting world. I went a solid O-fer:

1. The following teams win:


Prediction:                                                           Actual:
College Football National Title: Oregon                 Auburn 
College Basketball National Title: Syracuse            UConn
NFL: New England Patriots                                  Green Bay Packers
NBA: San Antonio Spurs                                      Dallas Mavericks
MLB: Philadelphia Phillies                                     St. Louis Cardinals 
NASCAR: Jimmie Johnson                                   Tony Stewart
NHL: Detroit Red Wings                                       Boston Bruins
Premier League Title: Chelsea                                Manchester United

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Saudi Women Enfranchised (Well Kinda) only 91 years after We Did

It seems the Saudi rulers keep on moving slowly toward the rest of the world (and keeping from getting Quaddiffied) by letting women vote without a mans approval and even run for office.

Shura Council member Fahad al-Anzi was quoted in the state-run al-Watan newspaper saying that approval for women to run and vote came from the guardian of Islam�s holiest sites, the Saudi king, and therefore women will not need a male guardian�s approval. The country�s Shura Council is an all-male consultative body with no legislative powers.

Pretty soon Saudi women might be able to drive cars and study abroad without a mans approval. If Saudi women get into office in large numbers the rest of the anti-woman laws will probably fall one by one.

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Romney Leads Obama by 6%

I often say that an empty suit can beat Obama with the economy in shambles and debt tripling on his watch and it seems we have found that suit.

The Rasmussen Reports poll found Romney ahead of Obama 45% to 39%, while 10% chose "some other candidate" and another 6% remained undecided. 

Actually I am in the 10% of "some other candidate" myself. If Paul Ryan ran I would vote for him in a minute. The current crop of GOP candidates are a bunch of losers but Romney is the most electable I guess.

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The Coach of the Lakers a Dungeons and Dragons Fan?

He sounds like a great hire as far as I can tell.

Brown told Lee Jenkins of Sports Illustrated he was the Dungeon Master for D&D games with his buddies while attending Sabin Middle School in Colorado Springs, Colo. Jenkins reports Brown, with perfect penmanship, wrote all the strategies and character descriptions in the Dungeons & Dragons game for his friends, since he felt his buddies' handwriting was a disgrace. That's not all: Once he put together a game board out of plexiglass, using rulers and pennies to form combat zones. When new D&D game modules were sent in the mail, Brown sprinted up to his bedroom to read the entire handbook and take detailed notes -- making his friends wait for hours in the basement.

From this he seems pretty hard core as well. I can't wait for all the Bible Thumpers to say that Brown is a closet satanist because he played D&D as a kid.

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Paying Off Layaway Accounts? Now This is a Real Christmas Gift

I have to say that the people that do this are what this season is all about.

"She told him, 'No, I'm paying for it,'" recalled Edna Deppe, assistant manager at the store in Indianapolis. "He just stood there and looked at her and then looked at me and asked if it was a joke. I told him it wasn't, and that she was going to pay for him. And he just busted out in tears."

At Kmart stores across the country, Santa seems to be getting some help: Anonymous donors are paying off strangers' layaway accounts, buying the Christmas gifts other families couldn't afford, especially toys and children's clothes set aside by impoverished parents.

These benefactors are pretty much funding Christmas for these people and should be given quite a bit of credit for doing it. Also the idea that they are doing it for complete strangers is an even better way to show that they are giving back.

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Cain to Make "Major Announcement" Saturday

Why doesn't he just drop out Monday and dominate the headlines on that day?

Herman Cain said he'll make an announcement about the future of his embattled presidential bid on Saturday.

He didn't elaborate when he disclosed his plans while campaigning in South Carolina. 

You know this is going to be his "you don't have Herman Cain to kick around anymore" speech so it would be nice to have a full news cycle to highlight it. I guess Friday is traditionally the day where you bury events so they don't get noticed. At least that is what the White House likes to do anyway. 

I guess Cain might want to get on some Sunday morning shows and let the media have it with both barrels because he was "hi-tech lynched" no doubt about it.

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Guy Dies of Airline Food

I know that crap was bad but I didn't know how bad.

After his flight landed at John F. Kennedy International Airport, Cortes, 73, began to feel "discomfort and pain that included sharp stomach cramps and sudden thirst and other clear outward manifestation of severe physical illness," the suit alleges. Once he'd boarded his connecting flight to Miami, Cortes experienced nausea and shortness of breath and suffered a cardiac event that left him unresponsive. The plane made an emergency landing in Norfolk, Va., but Cortes was pronounced dead on arrival.

Ever since I got violently ill after eating an airline meal coming back from Las Vegas one year I have stopped eating and drinking airline food. I even avoid the free sodas they give you by buying something at the airport store before I board in case I get thirsty.

I have packed sandwiches on just about every flight I have been on and usually eat before I board to avoid getting sick. It might be a little over-cautious but I don't want to take chances of getting sick 30,000 feet up and "being pronounced dead on arrival in Norfolk, Va." like this poor dude.

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Yeah Cain I Think your Campaign is Over

Well it seems a mistress of 13 years has come out of the woodwork. One thing the GOP hates is mistresses. So that pretty much does it.

On Monday, Ginger White said in an interview with Fox 5 Atlanta that her affair with Cain ended not long before the former businessman from Georgia announced his candidacy for the White House.

"It was fun," said White, 46, as she described Cain buying her plane tickets for a rendezvous in Palm Springs, Calif. "It was something that took me away from my sort of humdrum life at the time. And it was exciting."

Cain went on television to flatly deny White's claims even before the report aired.

"I didn't do anything wrong," he said then. On Tuesday, he told his staff "I deny those charges, unequivocally," and went on to say he had only helped White financially "because she was out of work and destitute, desperate."

Um, all White needs to do is produce a plane ticket that Cain paid for and he is sunk. I mean no matter how "out of work, destitute, and desperate" someone is they probably don't need plane tickets to travel to Palm Springs to meet up with him. That last part sounds like it could have been written by Berlusconi about some 18 year old Bunga Bunga girl. 

In any case these so-called "bimbo eruptions" are as bad as Clinton's were and are now heavily overshadowing his campaign. I think he needs to bow out now and save his family and friends any more anguish.

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President of Yemen out Bashar stands Alone (well almost)

It seems you have your days numbered if you happen to be an authoritarian dictator.

Yemen's autocratic leader agreed Wednesday to step down after months of demonstrations against his 33-year rule, pleasing the U.S. and its Gulf allies who feared that collapsing security in the impoverished nation was allowing an active al-Qaida franchise to step up operations.

If I was Assad I would agree to elections and either use a puppet ruler or just try to win an 8 year term with a 2 term limit or something. By the time he can't run again he will be well past retirement age. Or just retire to a villa in the South of France and spend your billions. The chance of getting caught by your people and shot with your own golden gun, or the so-called Qaddafi treatment, is getting higher every day.

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I Guess Herod Did not Build the Western Wall in Jerusalem

It seems he got credit for it but was actually dead for several years.

But archaeologists with the Israel Antiquities Authority now say diggers have found coins underneath the massive foundation stones of the compound's Western Wall that were stamped by a Roman proconsul 20 years after Herod's death. That indicates that Herod did not build the wall � part of which is venerated as Judaism's holiest prayer site � and that construction was not close to being complete when he died.

That proconsul was the guy that was after Pontius Pilate named Valerius Gratus who was there at 17AD.

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Bowl Champion Changes Might End Realignment At Last

Well the idea of Boise State, Air Force and San Diego State going to the Big East might be a big waste of time if these changes go into effect.

Sources with direct knowledge of meetings held in San Francisco earlier this week tell ESPN that the suggested change calls for the BCS to sever its direct ties with the BCS bowls -- the Allstate Sugar Bowl, Tostitos Fiesta Bowl, Discover Orange Bowl and Rose Bowl Game -- and focus only on arranging a No. 1 vs. No. 2 national championship game.

So you can kiss automatic qualifiers goodbye. If you don't have these to worry about then there really isn't any reason for a Boise State to join the Big East. Boise might get more money from being in the Big East but they would have to travel to the east coast and to Florida constantly in order to play sometimes mediocre teams.  Currently the furthest they would travel is to Hawaii and that would be every other year. Without a western contingent they would have to play every road game on the other side of the country.

Also what network would pay extra money to get all of the teams that are supposed to be in the 12 team Big East? I don't see tons people on the west coast trying to see South Florida play just like you don't see people in Florida trying to see San Diego State play.

Also the western add-ons don't seem to be really big jump in competition. I mean SMU and Houston (which is good now but has been just middling in years past) really doesn't add any fuel to their chances to go to the BCS title game. The other Big East western targets are already in their league so that is a sideways move. Currently without an automatic qualifier there really seems to be little to be gained from western teams joining the Big East.

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South Korea Passes Trade Pact Despite a Tear Gas Attack

I wonder is someone needs to tear-gas the "Super-Committee of Worthlessness" for failing to do anything but drop the market 300 points. At least we can get some cool Samsung phones on the cheap now.

South Korea�s parliament approved a free trade agreement with the United States in a chaotic session Tuesday, minutes after an opposition legislator set off a tear gas canister in protest at the pact.

Legislators voted 151-7 in favor of the long-delayed deal after ruling party members had caught the opposition off guard by calling a snap parliamentary session.

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Syrian Regime Next in Europes Crosshairs

If I was Assad I would be running scared because Europe backs its threats with bombs now.

A resolution drafted by Britain, France and Germany at the UN General Assembly's human rights committee was passed by 122 votes to 13 with 41 abstentions and received considerable support from Arab states. 

David Cameron urged world leaders to engage with Syrian opposition groups as he warned the country was on the brink of a full-scale civil war. 

Speaking alongside Abdullah Gul, the Turkish president, in Downing Street, Mr Cameron said that Turkey and the Arab League, which has drawn up a peace plan for Syria, had "shown welcome leadership and given us a way to stop the brutality of this morally bankrupt regime". 

That's what they were saying about Qaddiffi before they started to send in the Mirages. Also the Turkish President compared Assad to Hitler. Hmm, I wonder if there might be some Turkish troops sent into the fray to "protect border regions?" A stable neighbor and an Israel that isn't on edge all the time might be worth fighting for if you were Turkey playing the Big Game.

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New "Chained CPI" to Cut Social Security Benefits

I think this is a pretty good proposal that actually takes into account how inflation actually works.

The inflation measure under consideration is called the Chained Consumer Price Index, or chained CPI. On average, the measure shows a lower level of inflation than the more widely used CPI for All Urban Consumers.

Many economists argue that the chained CPI is more accurate because it assumes that as prices increase, consumers switch to lower cost alternatives, reducing the amount of inflation they experience.

For example, if the price of beef increases while the price of pork does not, people will buy more pork. Or, as opponents mockingly argue, if the price of home heating oil goes up, people will turn down their heat and wear more sweaters.

Of course the chained CPI will result in lower social security increases per year and thus less money for seniors in the long run. 

Under the chained CPI, yearly benefits for a typical 65-year-old would be about $136 less, according to an analysis of Social Security data. At age 75, annual benefits under the new index would be $560 less. At 85, the cut would be $984 a year, and at 95, the annual income loss would amount to $1,392.

That amounts to a $116 a month reduction in a persons social security over that 30 years time. That doesn't sound like a whole lot and you could easily offset the amount with inflation protected bonds if a person will be missing $116 in 30 years. 

Any change that results in Social Security staying solvent beyond the 18-year bankruptcy date is good for me. Then if they want to complete the savings go ahead and cut the social security benefits of people making over a certain income level as seniors. If you are getting big money from your 401K then you really should be getting your social security money cut by a certain amount.

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The Most Damning Statistic of Obama's Failed Economic Policies

We spent $4 trillion and this is what all that money has bought us.

About 20.5 million Americans, or 6.7 percent of the U.S. population, make up the poorest poor, defined as those at 50 percent or less of the official poverty level. Those living in deep poverty represent nearly half of the 46.2 million people scraping by below the poverty line. In 2010, the poorest poor meant an income of $5,570 or less for an individual and $11,157 for a family of four.

That 6.7 percent share is the highest in the 35 years that the Census Bureau has maintained such records, surpassing previous highs in 2009 and 1993 of just over 6 percent.

The the poor have grown to a historic number under Obama's watch. I mean no amount of stimulus can obscure the fact that Obama was dealt a bad hand and proceeded to make things far worse.

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Could one Marine Expeditionary Unit Defeat the Roman Empire?

This is a very interesting thought experiment that spawned a movie called Rome, Sweet Rome.

An MEU typically contains about 2200 troops, along with their artillery and vehicles. According to Erwin�s original reddit story (which will be altered for the movie), the Marines are transported back in time with what they have with them, including M1 Abrams battle tanks, bulletproof vests, M4 rifles, and grenades.

The year Erwin chose (23 B.C.) falls in the reign of Augustus, great-nephew of Julius Caesar and considered the first Roman emperor. His legions numbered nearly 330,000 men. They wore heavy leather and metal armor, carried swords and javelins, and operated catapults. They would have never heard the sound of an explosion before. "Obviously, there is a massive difference in firepower," says Roman military expert and author Adrian Goldsworthy. "Not only would Roman armor be useless against a rifle round�let alone a grenade launcher or a .50 caliber machine gun�it would probably distort the bullet�s shape and make the wound worse."

I would have to agree with Adrian Goldsworthy that eventually the Romans numbers would wear down the Marines who would not be able to resupply or refuel their tanks in 23 BC. However, if they moved quickly toward Rome with local guides they could take the city fairly easily by obliterating any legions in their way and pounding their walls with artillery.

I mean the shock of an M1A Abrams Tank moving down the Appian Way would scare anyone who opposes them. The Roman government would probably cut a deal with these strange outsiders since they are fairly pragmatic when it comes to people that could kill them with invisible lightning.  

 

Maybe the Romans would give them a large swath of land in Cappadocia or Thrace far from the seat of the Empire. I can see the Emperor providing ships, gold, and foodstuffs aplenty just to get them far away from the capital as possible. 

 

Also the Marines being soldiers and not politicians they probably would not have dreams of conquest of the entire Empire on their minds. They would want to find their bearings and either figure a way home (which would be impossible) or just make the best of the situation.

However, the 35th Marine Expeditionary Unit (MEU) which is used in the thought experiment would probably be a formidable power in the Ancient World. I can see Kings and Emperors trying to curry favor with them just to get their knowledge and expertise let alone access to their magic exploding devices. They would probably marry into the local Thracian population and create a fairly decent homeland for themselves. I can see the local Thracian King sending his daughter into the Marine camp to marry their General ASAP.

In fact I can easily see the Roman Emperor turning to a Marine general to lead his forces against the Picts or whomever the Empire is trying to conquer. Marines would probably eventually be hired for jobs in all parts of the Roman world. I could see them using their modern knowledge to reshape the Empire and maybe give it a bit of an American flavor as well. 

 

It wouldn't be long before a rudimentary electric plant sprouts up on the Palatine Hill. Or the Romans will be watching Team Jimmie Johnson against Team Tony Stewart racing chariots in the Circus Maximus. I could see Romans snacking on corn chips and hotdogs at the Colosseum exported from American Thrace. In fact I could see rock and rap music being written for Lyre or Tibia (roman double flute) or a Roman play that has a plot very similar to Star Wars or Lord of the Rings. The Romans were good at soaking up other cultures and America has one of the most soakable.

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Hey Women, Taking Vitamins Might Kill You that Much Faster

Well, there is a 2.4% increased risk of dying anyway.

The new study linked a number of individual vitamins and minerals to the slight mortality risk, including multivitamins, vitamin B6, folic acid, iron, magnesium, zinc and copper.

For example, of the 12,769 women in the study who took a daily multivitamin, 40.8 percent had died by the end of 2008, whereas 39.8 percent of the 10,161 women who hadn't taken a daily multivitamin had died.

Mursu said that the design of the study did not allow the researchers to determine if there was a specific cause for the increased mortality.

That doesn't make sense. Wouldn't the study authors be able to look over the data and determine that this vitamin or that vitamin has a higher chance of mortality then the others? Also I would like to know if there is a trend in how the women are dying. So for instance if they all died of some horrible cancer or something then it would be nice for the authors to point that out. In any case I think there might be a lot less pill popping going on going forward.

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Sarah Palin Will Not Run: Thank God!

At least she bowed out early so we can get to the actual people running against Obama and get away from Palin bashing by the press.

Wasilla, Alaska After much prayer and serious consideration, I have decided that I will not be seeking the 2012 GOP nomination for President of the United States. As always, my family comes first and obviously Todd and I put great consideration into family life before making this decision. When we serve, we devote ourselves to God, family and country. My decision maintains this order.

She would suck the air out the room and become an easy win for Obama going forward. I think her reputation is just too damaged by the press to be anything except for a television pundit. I mean even though it was Tiny Fey that made that "I can see Russia from my house" remark it has still stuck with Palin even now. If she ran for president she would be defeated by 20 points I think.

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Default Social Networker Found

This is a pretty interesting report by Nielsen Research on the default visitor to a social networking site.

Our most active social networker/reader of blogs is a woman between the ages of 18 and 34 and likely to be Asian or Pacific Islander. She lives in New England, holds at least a bachelor's degree and earns less than $50,000 a year. 

I was kind of surprised that this person is Asian and from New England though. Maybe the poll was skewed that way due to how these people were sampled. In any case marketers need to target this person in order to generate a larger percentage of sales via social networking.  

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